Geothermal energy opportunities in Africa

Geothermal Energy in Africa: A Continent Poised to Lead a Renewable Revolution

By :Robert Buluma

Africa, and East Africa in particular, sits on one of the world's most extraordinary geological phenomena: the East African Rift System (EARS). This 6,000-kilometer rift, stretching from the Red Sea down to Mozambique, is not just a source of breathtaking landscapes; it is a vast reservoir of underground steam and heat with the potential to fundamentally reshape the continent's energy future.

Geothermal energy is not new to Africa. The world's first geothermal power plant was commissioned in the Democratic Republic of Congo's Kiabukwa mine between 1952 and 1960, a 250 kW operation that predates even the famous Wairakei plant in New Zealand. While that pioneer project faded, a revolution is now taking place that could see Africa overtake Europe in geothermal capacity by the end of the decade. The moment is here for Africa to transform its immense geological wealth into a driver of sustainable, reliable, and homegrown power.

The Immense Resource

The numbers describing Africa's geothermal potential are staggering. The African continent is estimated to have a total geothermal potential of at least 20,000 MW of electricity generation capacity. This figure primarily resides within the EARS, a geologically active zone characterized by volcanic activity and tectonic movement that brings the Earth's internal heat close to the surface.

To put this in perspective, 20,000 MW is roughly five times the current installed geothermal capacity of the United States, the world's current leader. It's enough to power millions of homes and industries across the continent, where over 600 million people still lack access to electricity.

The potential is not distributed evenly. The Great Rift Valley’s hotbed extends through several nations, including Kenya, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda. In Kenya alone, the Rift Valley is believed to hold about 10,000 MW of potential. Estimates for Ethiopia suggest an installable capacity of around 6,500 MW, while Tanzania and Uganda are each estimated to have more than 1,000 MW of potential each.

These numbers, however, have remained largely theoretical for decades. The renewable energy revolution across Africa has been dominated by solar and wind, but geothermal offers a unique advantage: it is a stable, baseload power source that runs 24/7, regardless of whether the sun is shining or the wind is blowing.

Kenya's Geothermal Powerhouse

The leader of Africa's geothermal charge is unequivocally Kenya. Over the past 40 years, the country has invested heavily in exploring and developing its resources, transforming itself from a pioneer to a world-class player in the global geothermal industry.

Today, Kenya has installed over 985 MW of geothermal capacity, ranking sixth globally and serving as the continent’s undisputed geothermal powerhouse. Geothermal power contributes nearly 40% of Kenya's national electricity mix, making it the country’s largest single source of electricity ahead of hydro, wind, and solar.

The heart of Kenya's success story is the Olkaria geothermal field in Naivasha. The Olkaria field has an estimated potential of up to 10,000 MW and currently contributes over 750 MW to the national grid. The Kenyan government, through state-owned Kenya Electricity Generating Company (KenGen), and the Geothermal Development Company (GDC), has developed a model that absorbs the high upfront risk of exploration, which then de-risks the field for private investment in power generation.

This approach has set the stage for a period of rapid expansion. The 105 MW Menengai geothermal field, developed by GDC, is now being privately developed by three independent power producers (IPPs), including Sosian Energy, OrPower 22, and Globeleq. These three plants are expected to be fully operational by mid-2026. Meanwhile, KenGen is driving expansion at its flagship Olkaria complex. The planned rehabilitation and uprating of the Olkaria I plant is expected to add 63 MW to the grid. The company also plans to drill 42 new wells, adding approximately 200 MW of capacity as part of a major push to solidify geothermal as the backbone of the national grid.

The government's ambition does not stop there. Kenya's draft National Geothermal Strategy outlines a new target of 1,413.5 MW of installed capacity by 2035. This expansion is critical as Kenya is currently having to import electricity from neighbors like Ethiopia and Uganda to meet surging domestic and industrial demand.

Beyond Kenya: Ethiopia, Tanzania, and Others

While Kenya leads the charge, other nations along the Rift are beginning to harness their own resources. Ethiopia, heavily dependent on hydropower which is vulnerable to drought, is actively diversifying its energy mix. The country has a massive potential of about 6,500 MW of installable capacity. Its Aluto Langano field, currently producing just 7.3 MW, is a symbol of both the promise and the challenges. Major private projects like Corbetti and Tulu Moye are also in various stages of development.

Tanzania, too, is slowly advancing. The country's potential exceeds 5,000 MW, but has yet to achieve commercial-scale development. The Songwe and Kiejo-Mbaka prospects in the Rungwe Volcanic Province are key targets, with some optimism that the first plants could be operational by 2030. Uganda also has significant potential in the Albertine Graben, primarily for power generation and direct-use applications, while Rwanda is exploring its own potential at sites like the Karisimbi volcano. Even Djibouti, a small nation in the Horn of Africa, is moving ahead with exploration, underscoring the region's widespread potential. The 2025 Kenya-France geothermal cooperation agreement explicitly aims to boost development in Tanzania and Uganda, providing a model for South-South-North collaboration.

Barriers: The Gamble of Drilling

For all its promise, geothermal development in Africa has faced a common set of formidable barriers. The primary deterrent is the high upfront capital cost and the considerable risk of exploration. Drilling a single exploration well can cost up to $10 million, with no guarantee that the well will produce usable steam. This financial gamble is one most private investors are unwilling to take without significant public sector support.

Beyond the financial risk, a shortage of technical expertise and a lack of comprehensive policy and regulatory frameworks have also impeded progress. A lack of public funding, human resource shortages, and poor infrastructure have also been identified as major barriers. The Kenyan government has acknowledged that its own sector is constrained by non-cost-reflective tariffs, protracted approval processes, insufficient instruments to crowd in private investment, and policy ambiguities for non-power applications. The Geothermal Development Company (GDC) itself has noted that across the continent, high initial investment costs, limited financing, and a shortage of technical expertise have slowed progress.

Direct Use: The Overlooked Revolution

The conversation about geothermal energy is almost exclusively dominated by its role in electricity generation. However, the true versatility of this resource lies in its "direct use." This involves using the heat from geothermal fluids, often at lower temperatures, for a wide array of industrial and agricultural applications. This is an area where Africa has a massive opportunity to leapfrog other regions.

Kenya is a pioneer in this regard. The Geothermal Development Company (GDC) is actively engaged in a range of direct-use projects, including fish rearing, tomato and capsicum farming in heated greenhouses. The use of geothermal heat in greenhouses accelerates plant growth, allows for pesticide-free cultivation, and provides a stable environment for high-value horticultural products.

Perhaps the most exciting direct-use project is the groundbreaking Geothermal-Powered Green Fertilizer Plant. In partnership with China's Kaishan Group, KenGen is building the world's first geothermal-powered fertilizer facility, which will use geothermal steam to produce green ammonia and fertilizer. The 165-MW facility is expected to produce 200,000 to 300,000 tonnes of green fertilizer annually, avoiding over 600,000 tonnes of CO2 emissions per year. This project will reduce East Africa's heavy dependence on imported fertilizers, lower costs for farmers, and enhance regional food security.

The potential for direct use across the continent is vast. Uganda, for example, has an estimated 6,000 MWth (megawatts thermal) of geothermal potential for direct applications such as heating fisheries, tea processing, and fruit drying. Using geothermal heat for crop drying, milk pasteurization, and even leisure applications like swimming pools can bring economic value and energy security to communities far beyond the power grid.

Minerals, Mining, and a New Frontier

An emerging and highly exciting dimension to Africa's geothermal story is its intersection with the mining industry. Africa holds vast reserves of the critical minerals essential for the global energy transition: lithium, copper, cobalt, and rare earths. As demand for these minerals skyrockets, so does the environmental and social cost of extracting them.

Geothermal energy offers a uniquely symbiotic solution. Powering energy-intensive mining and mineral processing operations with clean, reliable, baseload geothermal electricity dramatically reduces the carbon footprint of the mining sector. Furthermore, geothermal fluids themselves can be a source of valuable minerals. Researchers have identified the potential for extracting lithium, zinc, lead, and other metals directly from the geothermal brines that flow from underground reservoirs.

This overlap is geographically fortuitous. The mineral-rich regions of Kenya, Ethiopia, Tanzania, and Zambia often coincide with the geothermal zones of the East African Rift. Co-developing mining and geothermal projects can create a virtuous cycle: geothermal power provides sustainable energy for mining, and the revenues from mining can help finance geothermal exploration and development. Djibouti, for instance, is already exploring the possibility of extracting lithium and potassium from its geothermal fluids as it develops its resources.

Financing the Future

Realizing this geothermal future will require massive investment. Rystad Energy projects that Africa's geothermal sector will attract at least $35 billion in investment from 2024 to 2050. This capital is beginning to flow, but it needs to accelerate dramatically.

International financial institutions are playing a crucial role. The African Development Bank (AfDB) has been a cornerstone financier, approving a $145 million loan to the GDC to develop the Menengai field. It has also approved direct loans to IPPs like the $16.5 million loan for the 35 MW OrPower Twenty-Two plant at Menengai.

The World Bank Group, through its private sector arm the IFC, has also stepped in, proposing significant loan tranches for the same project. A multi-donor partnership between Kenya and France, under the Agence Française de Développement (AFD), is specifically designed to unlock potential in Tanzania and Uganda by combining Kenya's drilling expertise with French direct-use technology. The African Rift Geothermal Development Facility (ARGeo) is another key initiative supporting exploration across the region.

The Road Ahead: From Potential to Reality

Africa stands at a critical juncture. By 2030, the continent could double or even triple its current geothermal capacity, potentially surpassing Europe to become a global leader in sustainable baseload power. Kenya aims to increase its capacity from about 940 MW to 1,824 MW by 2030, and to between 1,700 MW and 3,000 MW by 2043. Rystad Energy forecasts that Africa's total installed geothermal capacity could reach a remarkable 13 GW by 2050.

This is not merely an environmental goal; it is an economic and social imperative. For a continent where electricity access remains a critical bottleneck to development, geothermal offers a path to energy independence. For nations with burgeoning industrial sectors, geothermal provides competitive power to attract manufacturing and processing industries. For farmers and communities, direct-use geothermal offers a transformative tool for agriculture and industry.

The challenges of high costs, high risk, and capacity gaps are real, but they are not insurmountable. Kenya has shown that with sustained political will, innovative public-private partnerships, and strategic international cooperation, these barriers can be broken down. As the rest of the world looks for reliable, clean energy, Africa's Rift Valley, with its sleeping geothermal giant, is awakening. The steam is rising, and the moment for Africa's geothermal revolution is now.

See also: Risks and Challenges in Geothermal Drilling: What Investors Must Know

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Source: This article was written by Robert Buluma with insights from Alphaxioms