US Geothermal Tax Credits in 2026: What Is Actually Still Alive After OBBBA For an industry that spent more than a decade building financial models around a stable federal incentive structure, 2026 has been a year of whiplash. The 30% federal geothermal tax credit that developers and homeowners built forecasts around is gone in one form and still alive in another, and even the IRS’s own public guidance has been confusing enough to trigger uncertainty across the market. That confusion is not a minor clerical issue. It is shaping investment decisions, contractor sales pitches, homeowner timelines, and project finance assumptions right now. If you work in geothermal, the key question is no longer whether federal incentives exist, but which incentive applies, to which project type, and under what ownership structure. The law that changed the timeline To understand where things stand in 2026, you have to start with the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, which created a long runway for clean e...
University of Aberdeen and RGU join forces to accelerate geothermal energy research and heat-network deployment
Image: Lucy Leiper, Director of Research, Innovation & Enterprise at the University of Aberdeen and Christina Laing, Business Development Manager at Robert Gordon University
The University of Aberdeen and Robert Gordon University (RGU) have signed a Memorandum of Agreement to explore collaborative research, training and commercial activity in geothermal energy and low-carbon heating. This strategic partnership aims to combine subsurface expertise, drilling and modelling capabilities, supply-chain development, and skills training to accelerate geothermal deployment and support the just transition to net-zero heating across Scotland and beyond.
Why this partnership matters for the geothermal sector
Geothermal heat offers a predictable, baseload source of low-carbon thermal energy that can decarbonise district heating, industry process heat and building heating demand. Scotland’s geology includes accessible shallow and deep geothermal resources, and Aberdeen’s universities are well placed to advance the science, engineering and commercial frameworks that turn resource potential into operational projects. By coordinating expertise and facilities, the two universities can reduce project risk, develop standardised workflows, and help build a local supply chain — all essential to scaling geothermal at pace.
Key collaboration areas and technical priorities
- Geothermal subsurface characterisation: joint work on integrated geological, geophysical and hydrogeological datasets to better map heat resources, reservoir properties, permeability pathways and temperature gradients.
- Modelling and simulation: co-development of numerical models for thermal-hydraulic behaviour, coupled thermo-poroelastic responses, and long-term reservoir performance forecasting.
- Drilling and well engineering: shared best-practices for well design and drilling operations, site-specific risk assessment, and data collection during exploratory drilling.
- Heat delivery systems and heat networks: integrated design work on heat exchangers, heat pumps, secondary distribution systems, demand-side integration, and hybrid systems combining geothermal with heat pumps or waste-heat sources.
- Supply chain and skills development: partnerships to train drill crews, subsurface scientists, heat-system engineers and planners, plus support for local companies to enter the geothermal market.
- Finance, policy and public engagement: research on commercial models, risk allocation and financing structures, policy barriers, and community engagement strategies to secure social licence.
How combined datasets and facilities reduce development risk
One of the biggest barriers for geothermal developers is subsurface uncertainty. By sharing borehole logs, seismic surveys, thermal-gradient wells, and geochemistry datasets, the universities can create higher-quality site characterisations that reduce exploration risk. Combined laboratory facilities — core analysis, rock mechanics, petrophysics, and thermal conductivity testing — enable calibrated models that predict reservoir behaviour with greater confidence. These improvements lower the probability of costly unsuccessful wells and make the case for investment more compelling.
Technical approaches to reservoir characterisation
Comprehensive reservoir assessment requires multidisciplinary methods:
- Surface and borehole geophysics: gravity, magnetics, passive seismic, active seismic surveys, and vertical seismic profiling (VSP) to detect faults, fractures and lithological contrasts.
- Temperature-gradient drilling and DSTs (drill-stem tests): direct measurements of thermal regime and hydraulic connectivity.
- Hydrogeochemical sampling: fluid chemistry and isotopes to identify recharge pathways, residence time and scaling/corrosion risks.
- Petrophysical and rock-physics testing: thermal conductivity, specific heat, porosity, permeability and mechanical strength data to inform coupled thermal-hydraulic models.
Modelling: from single-well systems to regional heat networks
Numerical models help translate geological observations into operational strategies:
- Well-scale simulations: predict flow rates, drawdown, and long-term thermal drawdown at the well level, informing well spacing and stimulation plans.
- Reservoir-scale models: evaluate sustainable extraction rates and reinjection designs for engineered geothermal systems (EGS) or hydrothermal aquifer systems.
- Network-level analysis: integrate supply-side outputs with district heating demand profiles, pipe sizing, seasonal storage options and control strategies for hybrid systems.
Drilling, completion and well integrity considerations
Effective drilling programs are central to geothermal success:
- Well design must account for high temperatures, corrosive fluids, and variable lithologies; materials selection (casing, cement, packers) is critical.
- Drilling telemetry and real-time monitoring enable early identification of lost circulation zones and overpressure.
- Well testing and logging (temperature logs, spinner logs, full waveform logging) provide essential inputs for reservoir models.
- Well integrity over decades requires redundancy, corrosion-protected materials and robust cementing practices to prevent annular leaks and maintain thermal performance.
Heat delivery: matching geothermal output to demand
Geothermal heat is most valuable when integrated with a demand-side network:
- Low-temperature geothermal (30–90°C) pairs well with heat pumps and low-temperature district networks; hybridisation increases dispatchability.
- Heat exchangers and plant design must minimise thermal losses and scaling; materials and maintenance plans should mitigate fouling.
- Network design should include buffer storage and load-balancing to match diurnal and seasonal demand variation.
- Economic performance improves with mixed-use networks (residential, commercial, industrial) and contractual frameworks that secure long-term offtake.
Skills, training and supply-chain development
Scaling geothermal requires a skilled workforce and local industry capacity:
- Training curricula for subsurface geoscience, drilling technicians, reservoir engineers and heat-system designers will supply project pipelines with qualified personnel.
- Applied research projects can create proof-of-concept demonstrations that allow local suppliers to develop geothermal-specific services.
- Collaboration with local authorities and vocational colleges can help reskill workers from oil and gas sectors — a critical component of a just transition in regions like Aberdeen.
Financing models and reducing commercial risk
Universities can play a role in derisking projects and attracting capital:
- Public-private partnerships, grants, and innovation funding can fund early-stage exploration and pilot wells.
- Universities can host pre-competitive datasets and feasibility studies that strengthen bankable project plans.
- Alternative risk-allocation instruments — such as public insurance for exploration failure or co-funding of first-of-a-kind wells — can mobilise private capital.
- Clear policy signals and heat-offtake mechanisms (e.g., long-term contracts with district heat operators) reduce revenue uncertainty.
Community engagement and the just transition
Long-term project success depends on social licence:
- Transparent public engagement, open data sharing and local benefits (jobs, skills, reduced energy bills) foster support.
- Research into community impacts, equitable connection policies, and inclusive procurement ensures the transition benefits local populations.
- Universities can act as neutral facilitators between industry, local government and communities, providing independent analysis and capacity building.
Case applications: what Aberdeen can contribute nationally and internationally
Aberdeen’s geology, combined with the universities’ expertise, positions the city as a testbed for:
- Shallow urban geothermal for heat networks in existing towns.
- Deep geothermal for industrial process heat and hydrogen production synergies.
- EGS research for low-permeability basements where conventional hydrothermal systems are absent.
- Knowledge transfer to other regions with similar geology, and exportable training and technical services.
Research-to-commercial pipeline: next steps to scale projects
To translate collaboration into deployed projects, the partnership should prioritise:
1. Targeted feasibility studies that integrate shared datasets to identify high-probability sites.
2. Pilot drilling campaigns with clear data-gathering protocols and open reporting.
3. Development of standardised project development templates (permitting, environmental assessment, procurement).
4. Creation of applied training modules and apprenticeships tied to pilot projects.
5. Engagement with financiers to design blended funding models and risk-sharing instruments.
Metrics of success and monitoring outcomes
Key performance indicators (KPIs) for the partnership could include:
- Number of co-funded research projects and pilot wells initiated.
- Volume of shared datasets and open-access publications produced.
- Number of trained professionals and accredited courses launched.
- Measurable reduction in exploration uncertainty (e.g., reduced variance in flow-rate or temperature predictions).
- Amount of private follow-on investment unlocked by university-led pilots.
Risks, challenges and mitigation
- Subsurface uncertainty: mitigate via multi-method characterisation, staged drilling and conservative production scenarios.
- Financing gaps: address with blended funding, public guarantees, and demonstration-of-concept pipelines.
- Regulatory and permitting delays: engage early with regulators, standardise compliance templates, and share best practices.
- Community opposition: prioritise transparent engagement, local benefits and independent environmental monitoring.
Conclusion: an academic partnership with system-level impact
The University of Aberdeen–RGU collaboration creates a scalable model for accelerating geothermal research, training and project development. By pooling data, facilities and expertise, the partnership can reduce development risk, build a local supply chain, and help demonstrate commercially viable pathways for low-carbon heat. These actions support regional economic transition while contributing to national net-zero goals and providing exportable know-how for international geothermal markets.
Source : Abdn University
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