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"US Geothermal Tax Credits 2026: What the IRA/45Q Changes Mean for Developers"

By Robert Buluma Alphaxioms
US Geothermal Tax Credits in 2026: What Is Actually Still Alive After OBBBA For an industry that spent more than a decade building financial models around a stable federal incentive structure, 2026 has been a year of whiplash. The 30% federal geothermal tax credit that developers and homeowners built forecasts around is gone in one form and still alive in another, and even the IRS’s own public guidance has been confusing enough to trigger uncertainty across the market. That confusion is not a minor clerical issue. It is shaping investment decisions, contractor sales pitches, homeowner timelines, and project finance assumptions right now. If you work in geothermal, the key question is no longer whether federal incentives exist, but which incentive applies, to which project type, and under what ownership structure. The law that changed the timeline To understand where things stand in 2026, you have to start with the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, which created a long runway for clean e...
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Three Pertamina Geothermal projects in Indonesia have secured $477 million in international financing

By Robert Buluma Alphaxioms
Geothermal Greenlight: How PGEO Just Unlocked $477 Million and a 40% Profit Surge By: Robert Buluma   If you follow clean energy in Southeast Asia, you already know the name: PT Pertamina Geothermal Energy Tbk (PGEO). But unless you've been staring at their Q1 earnings and the Indonesian government's newly released Green Book 2026, you might have missed just how massive this moment really is. In the span of one week, PGEO did two things that most renewable energy companies only dream of: 1. Secured $477.87 million in low-cost, sovereign-backed international funding. 2. Reported a 40% year-on-year net profit surge — to $43.90 million — on record electricity generation. That is not a coincidence. That is a flywheel . In this deep-dive blog post, we're going to unpack exactly what happened, why it matters for Indonesia's net-zero future, and how PGEO is quietly becoming one of the most compelling geothermal stories on the planet. Let's get into it. The Headline That ...
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Pertamina Geothermal Energy Withdraws from Kenya's Suswa Project Amid Concerns Over Returns and Majority Stake

By Robert Buluma Alphaxioms
Pertamina Geothermal Energy Withdraws from Kenya's Suswa Project: A Strategic Pivot in International Expansion By: Robert Buluma Image: Pertamina Geothermal Energy Withdraws from Kenya's Suswa Project Amid Concerns Over Returns and Majority Stake In a significant development for the global geothermal sector, PT Pertamina Geothermal Energy Tbk (PGEO ), the renewable energy arm of Indonesia's state-owned energy giant Pertamina, has officially withdrawn from its planned investment in the Suswa geothermal field in Kenya . Announced in late February 2026, this decision marks the end of a multi-year exploration of collaboration between PGEO and Kenya's Geothermal Development Company (GDC), a fully government-owned entity tasked with advancing the country's vast geothermal resources. The news first surfaced prominently in Indonesian media, including Bisnis.com, where Pertamina New & Renewable Energy (NRE ) President Director John Anis provided direct insight during an...
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Alphaxioms Interviews Rystad Energy: Geothermal's Inflection Point, Policy, and Drilling Breakthroughs

By Robert Buluma Alphaxioms
Geothermal at an Inflection Point: Why Policy, Conventional Resources, and Drilling Breakthroughs Will Define the Next Decade This interview was conducted by Robert Buluma on behalf of Alphaxioms,  responses delivered by  Alexandra Gerken Product manager, Geothermal solution at Rystad Energy   Introduction: The Strategic Crossroads for Geothermal Geothermal energy is entering a decisive phase. After decades of steady but regionally concentrated development, the sector now faces a confluence of technological innovation, policy ambition, and market demand that could either unlock global scale or confine geothermal to niche applications. Alexandra Gerken, Product Manager for Geothermal Solutions at  Rystad Energy , offers a clear-eyed assessment of where the industry stands, which technologies will drive near-term growth, and what must happen for geothermal to become a globally significant source of firm, low-carbon power. Her analysis emphasizes three pillars: the imme...
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Green Therma Selects H&P to Drill Denmark’s Longest Geothermal Well

By Robert Buluma Alphaxioms
Green Therma Selects H&P to Drill Denmark’s Longest Geothermal Well for Aalborg Heat4Ever Demonstration Denmark is moving from geothermal ambition to execution. Green Therma has selected Helmerich & Payne to drill the Heat4Ever demonstration well near Aalborg, a project that could become one of the country’s most technically ambitious geothermal developments and a meaningful test of closed-loop district heating.   A milestone for Danish geothermal The Aalborg Heat4Ever project matters because it is designed to prove that geothermal heat can be delivered without relying on a natural hot-water reservoir. Instead of producing groundwater from a conventional geothermal field, the system uses a closed-loop pipe-in-pipe design that circulates the same fluid downhole, heats it in contact with hot rock, and returns it to the surface for district heating use.  That distinction is important for Denmark, where district heating is already a major part of the energy system ...
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Serbia Advances Mišeluk Geothermal District Heating Project in Novi Sad

By Robert Buluma Alphaxioms
Serbia Advances Geothermal Drilling for the Mišeluk District Heating Plant in Novi Sad Serbia is moving forward with plans to develop a geothermal district heating system in Mišeluk, a rapidly urbanizing area of Novi Sad. The project is intended to place geothermal energy at the centre of a new low-carbon heating network, supported by solar power and natural gas backup. Exploratory drilling and construction of the heat distribution network are being carried out by JKP Novosadska toplana, Novi Sad’s public district heating utility. The initiative is supported through the United Nations Development Programme’s “Geothermal Energy in Serbia” programme, with financial backing from Slovakia.  The Mišeluk project is important not only because it could provide a new renewable heat source for Novi Sad, but also because it demonstrates how geothermal energy can be integrated into urban development from the earliest planning stages. Rather than retrofitting a geothermal system into an establi...
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North America Geothermal Energy Investment Opportunities, Companies, Resources, and Market Outlook

By Robert Buluma Alphaxioms
Investment Opportunities in North American Geothermal Energy North America is entering a new investment cycle in geothermal energy. The United States offers the region’s deepest commercial market and the largest advanced-geothermal pipeline; Mexico provides proven high-temperature volcanic resources and an established utility-scale industry; while Canada presents an earlier-stage opportunity centered on sedimentary-basin geothermal, direct-use heating, closed-loop systems, and oil-and-gas technology transfer. The investment case now extends well beyond conventional geothermal power plants. It includes enhanced geothermal systems, advanced closed-loop systems, geothermal heat pumps, district heating, industrial heat, geothermal storage, lithium extraction from geothermal brines, data-center power, and hybrid renewable-energy projects. In the United States, utilities had already procured or agreed to procure 1,007 MW of next-generation geothermal capacity through 12 power-purchase agreem...
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New Mexico Tribal Geothermal Development: Energy Sovereignty, Jobs, Investment

By Robert Buluma Alphaxioms
New Mexico’s Tribal Lands Poised for Geothermal Development: Opportunity, Challenges, and Pathways to Energy Sovereignty Image:  Located in Lordsburg, Lightning Dock is the only utility scale geothermal power plant in New Mexico. (BLM New Mexico via Flickr) Why geothermal matters for New Mexico tribes, nations, and pueblos Geothermal energy uses heat from the earth to produce electricity or heat buildings directly. For New Mexico — a state with abundant subsurface heat resources — geothermal offers a reliable, low‑emission complement to wind and solar. Unlike intermittent renewables, geothermal provides baseload power capable of supporting grid stability and reducing reliance on fossil fuels. For tribal communities, geothermal has particular appeal: it aligns with many Indigenous values around stewardship, can be developed with relatively low water demand compared with some thermal technologies, and offers long‑term revenue, jobs, and enhanced local control over energy resources. E...
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NYC Subway Thermal Energy Network Pilot: Geothermal Heat Capture, Radiant Cooling, Seasonal Storage

By Robert Buluma Alphaxioms
New York’s Subway Heat Turned into Winter Warmth: The City’s First Transit Thermal Energy Network Pilot Turning platform heat into usable energy — what the Chambers Street and Brooklyn Bridge–City Hall pilot means for urban energy systems New York City has launched a study to design and test a Thermal Energy Network (TEN) that would capture excess heat from two of Lower Manhattan’s hottest subway stations and reuse it to heat nearby municipal buildings. The proposed pilot, centered on the Brooklyn Bridge–City Hall 4/5/6 complex and the Chambers Street J/Z station, is notable for being the first time TENs are being considered inside a U.S. transit system. The plan pairs radiant cooling on platforms with geothermal borehole storage under an abandoned center platform at Chambers Street, converting otherwise wasted heat into a supply that can be stored seasonally and delivered to surrounding municipal facilities during colder months. This initiative sits at the intersection of urban heat r...
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€200 Million Dutch Geothermal Financing Accelerates Sustainable Greenhouse Heat Growth

By Robert Buluma Alphaxioms
€200 Million Financing Accelerates Dutch Geothermal Energy Cluster in Centraal Oostland A new financing framework of up to €200 million is set to accelerate the development of a major geothermal energy cluster in Centraal Oostland, a greenhouse horticulture region in South Holland, the Netherlands. The facility, arranged by ING and Rabobank for renewable heat infrastructure platform 85 Degrees Renewable, will support the next phase of geothermal development in the region. The funding is expected to finance new geothermal wells, expand heat distribution infrastructure and strengthen the long-term growth of an integrated renewable heat platform serving greenhouse growers. The transaction is significant not only because of its size, but also because it demonstrates the growing ability of geothermal heat projects to attract institutional and bank financing. It highlights a shift from treating geothermal energy as a collection of individual drilling projects toward developing integrated hea...
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Innargi Geothermal drives Europe's renewable district heating decarbonisation from Aarhus to Poland

By Robert Buluma Alphaxioms
Innargi Geothermal, Decarbonising Europe's Heat, One City at a Time In an era defined by the urgent need to decarbonise Europe’s energy systems, one critical sector often remains overlooked, heating. Accounting for a substantial portion of the continent’s energy consumption, the heating sector has long been dominated by fossil fuels and biomass. Enter Innargi Geothermal, a Danish company on a mission to change that, one community at a time. Founded in 2017 by A.P. Møller Holding , Innargi has rapidly evolved from a single-project venture in Aarhus into an international geothermal energy company with a growing portfolio across Northern and Eastern Europe. By applying decades of subsurface expertise from the oil and gas industry to the untapped potential of geothermal energy, Innargi is industrialising geothermal district heating at a scale never before seen in the European Union. This article takes a deep dive into Innargi’s operations, exploring its revolutionary business model a...
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Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki GT-1 Thermal Water Exploration Well: Project Overview, Funding, and Investment Potential

By Robert Buluma Alphaxioms
Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki GT,1 Thermal Water Exploration Well: Project Overview, Funding, and Investment Potential Project background and objectives The town of Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki signed grant agreement No. 52/2025/Wn07/FG,hg,dg on 20 February 2025 with the National Fund for Environmental Protection and Water Management (NFOŚiGW) under the “Making Poland’s Thermal Waters Accessible” priority program. The grant fully funds the execution of a single exploration and appraisal borehole, Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki GT,1, aimed at locating and characterizing geothermal waters for heating, recreational and balneotherapy uses. The direct objective is to perform geological works to identify and appraise thermal water resources and to make them available for municipal and commercial uses. The drilling target is one borehole to a design depth of 2,070 m (±10%). The project’s declared operational target is to assess thermal water yield and temperature to determine suitability for district heating, spa, recr...
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Blowout at Cape Station: Fervo Energy’s First Major Crisis After Blockbuster IPO

By Robert Buluma Alphaxioms
Just weeks after a record-breaking IPO, the flagship project of the "geothermal unicorn" faces its first major operational crisis. By : Robert Buluma   Beaver County, Utah – The morning of May 27, 2026, began like any other at the Cape Station construction site in rural Utah. Workers for Fervo Energy, the newly public darling of the renewable energy world, were engaged in the complex task of drilling deep into the Earth’s crust to unlock what the company promised would be the future of 24/7 clean power. But by the afternoon, the routine had turned into a crisis. The site had experienced a blowout—an uncontrolled release of fluid or pressure from a well. For any energy company, a blowout is a serious matter. For Fervo Energy, which had just raised $1.89 billion in a blockbuster Nasdaq debut two weeks prior, it represents an immediate stress test of its technology, its safety protocols, and its $7.7 billion market valuation. While the well has since been contained and no injur...
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