Kaishan Targets 2 GW Kenya Geothermal Development Across Five Fields

Kaishan Targets 2 GW of Geothermal Development Across Kenya

Kenya's geothermal sector has opened a potentially significant new chapter after Kaishan Group and the Geothermal Development Company (GDC) signed a collaboration framework agreement covering five geothermal blocks in the East African Rift Valley.

Signed in Nairobi on September 14, 2026, the agreement establishes a framework for the two parties to explore potential joint development of Silali, Paka, Korosi, Baringo and Suswa. According to Kaishan, the five areas have potential to support approximately 2 GW of installed geothermal capacity.

The headline figure is substantial, but it is important to distinguish between resource potential and committed generation capacity. The framework agreement is non-binding. The parties will first conduct due diligence, assess the resources and negotiate development plans before potentially signing separate binding agreements for individual geothermal blocks.

The development could nevertheless become one of the most important private-sector geothermal opportunities in Kenya, particularly because Kaishan already has operating experience at the Menengai geothermal field and is developing a geothermal-powered green ammonia project with KenGen.

Kaishan and GDC Sign Framework for Five Geothermal Blocks

The September 14 agreement brings together two organisations with complementary roles in Kenya's geothermal industry.

GDC, a fully government-owned company, was established to develop geothermal steam fields and provide steam for electricity generation by KenGen and private investors.

Kaishan Group, meanwhile, has expanded its geothermal presence in Kenya through the development and operation of geothermal power plants at Menengai.

Under the new framework, the two organisations intend to investigate potential cooperation covering joint exploration, resource assessment, utilisation and possible development of geothermal resources in five areas.

The blocks are:

• Silali
• Paka
• Korosi
• Baringo
• Suswa

Kaishan estimates that the combined resource potential could support approximately 2 GW of installed capacity.

The figure should be viewed as a development opportunity rather than a confirmed 2 GW construction programme.

The framework specifically provides for further due diligence and negotiations. If the parties agree on viable development plans, separate legally binding agreements would be signed for the individual geothermal blocks.

That process could ultimately determine how much capacity is actually developed.

Why the 2 GW Figure Matters

Two gigawatts would represent a major expansion of geothermal generation in Kenya.

Kenya has one of Africa's most developed geothermal industries, centred historically on Olkaria, while GDC has been developing additional resources in areas including Menengai and the Baringo-Silali-Paka region.

The country has also been actively trying to expand geothermal generation beyond its traditional core.

The opportunity is particularly relevant because geothermal power can provide electricity independently of weather conditions that affect hydropower and solar generation.

At Baringo-Silali-Paka, GDC has already reported successful geothermal exploration. In 2025, the Government Advertising Agency reported that GDC had struck viable steam at Silali, with the field expected to discharge 22 MW of steam. The broader Baringo-Silali-Paka project was targeting 300 MW in its first phase across Paka, Korosi and Silali.

That means the blocks included in the new Kaishan-GDC framework are not simply theoretical locations on a geothermal map. Several have already undergone substantial exploration and drilling.

Silali, Paka and Korosi: An Emerging Geothermal Cluster

Three of the areas covered by the agreement—Paka, Silali and Korosi—form part of the Baringo-Silali-Paka geothermal development area.

GDC has spent years exploring these resources.

In 2025, government reporting stated that GDC had already harnessed 75 MW of geothermal steam from the Baringo-Silali-Paka area and was targeting a 105 MW power plant at Paka by 2027. The same report said power producers would be competitively selected for power plant development at Baringo-Silali-Paka.

This creates an important potential pathway for private-sector participation.

Under Kenya's geothermal development model, GDC can take responsibility for resource development and steam-field activities while private investors develop power-generation infrastructure.

The Menengai project provides a practical example of that approach.

The new Kaishan framework could therefore potentially create another route through which private capital and technology are combined with geothermal resources developed by GDC.

Suswa Adds Another Major Geothermal Opportunity

The fifth area in the agreement is Suswa, located in the wider Rift Valley geothermal system.

GDC has already been working toward opening up the Suswa geothermal field. Government reporting in 2025 indicated that GDC had begun activities to open the field, while subsequent industry reporting has identified Suswa as part of the company's growing geothermal development portfolio.

Including Suswa in the Kaishan framework potentially expands the cooperation beyond the Baringo-Silali-Paka cluster.

It also demonstrates the scale of the opportunity being considered.

Instead of developing a single geothermal site, the agreement creates a framework for evaluating multiple geothermal resources across different locations.

For an international geothermal developer, that portfolio approach can be important because exploration outcomes vary from field to field.

Kaishan Already Has a Track Record at Menengai

The new agreement does not represent Kaishan's entry into Kenya's geothermal sector.

The company already has significant experience at Menengai, where it has developed two 35 MW geothermal power plants.

Kaishan reported in March 2026 that its KK01 geothermal power plant at Menengai had completed a 30-day stability test and was preparing for commercial operation. The plant has a net capacity of 35 MW and uses steam supplied by GDC.

Kaishan's involvement at Menengai has therefore given it direct experience with Kenya's geothermal resource-development and power-generation environment.

The company also became involved in the Menengai project through the acquisition of OrPower 22, which developed another 35 MW plant. The Kenyan PPP Directorate identifies OrPower 22 as being onboarded by Kaishan Group.

That existing footprint could be important when assessing the significance of the new GDC agreement.

Rather than beginning from zero, Kaishan is seeking to expand from existing Kenyan geothermal operations into a much larger portfolio.

From Geothermal Electricity to Green Hydrogen and Ammonia

Perhaps the most interesting part of the new framework is that it goes beyond conventional geothermal power generation.

The agreement also identifies potential cooperation in green hydrogen and green ammonia production.

Kaishan and GDC specifically envisage using surplus electricity during off-peak periods to produce green hydrogen and ammonia. The stated objectives include helping balance electricity supply and demand and potentially contributing to lower electricity prices.

This represents a different way of thinking about geothermal power.

Instead of treating electricity generation as the only product of a geothermal field, excess or strategically available electricity could potentially become an input into industrial production.

Green hydrogen can be used as a feedstock for ammonia production, while green ammonia can serve agricultural, industrial and potentially energy-related markets.

For Kenya, the connection with fertilizer production is particularly relevant.

Kaishan Is Already Building a Geothermal-Powered Fertilizer Project

The new GDC agreement builds on Kaishan's separate partnership with KenGen at Olkaria.

In November 2025, KenGen announced an agreement with Kaishan's Kenyan subsidiary for a geothermal-powered green fertilizer facility.

Under that agreement, Kaishan Terra Green Ammonia Limited is expected to construct and operate the facility using 165 MW of geothermal energy supplied by KenGen over 30 years. KenGen said the plant is expected to produce approximately 200,000–300,000 tonnes of green fertilizer annually.

The project illustrates why geothermal electricity could become more than a source of power for Kenya.

It can also serve as an industrial input.

Geothermal electricity can potentially power electrolysis and other industrial processes without depending directly on variable solar or wind generation.

Kaishan itself has described its broader vision as combining geothermal resources with green power, green hydrogen, green ammonia and related products.

The Concept of Using Off-Peak Geothermal Power

The proposed use of surplus electricity is particularly interesting from a grid-management perspective.

Geothermal plants are generally suited to providing stable generation, but electricity demand varies throughout the day.

If additional geothermal capacity is developed, there may be periods when available generation exceeds immediate demand or when electricity can be allocated to flexible industrial loads.

Producing hydrogen and ammonia during such periods could create another use for electricity.

The Kaishan-GDC framework explicitly identifies this concept as part of the proposed cooperation.

In principle, this creates a potential chain:

Geothermal resource → geothermal power → surplus/off-peak electricity → hydrogen → ammonia → fertilizer and other industrial products

Such integration could increase the range of economic uses associated with geothermal resources.

However, the commercial viability would depend on electricity costs, electrolyser utilisation, ammonia production economics, water availability, infrastructure, financing and market prices.

The Agreement Is Not Yet a 2 GW Construction Deal

This is the most important qualification surrounding the announcement.

The headline 2 GW should not be interpreted as meaning Kaishan has committed to immediately build 2 GW of geothermal power plants.

The September framework agreement is explicitly non-binding.

According to Kaishan, the immediate next steps involve due diligence and discussions covering joint exploration, assessment, utilisation and potential development. Binding agreements would subsequently be negotiated for individual geothermal blocks based on mutually agreed development plans.

This means several stages remain before the full potential could translate into actual installed capacity.

Those stages could include:

1. Geological and geophysical assessment.
2. Review of existing exploration wells.
3. Additional drilling.
4. Reservoir modelling.
5. Steam-resource assessment.
6. Power-plant feasibility studies.
7. Environmental and social assessments.
8. Transmission planning.
9. Financing.
10. Negotiation of binding project agreements.
11. Construction.
12. Commissioning.

The eventual capacity could therefore be different from the headline 2 GW potential.

Kenya's Private Geothermal Model Could Benefit

The agreement could nevertheless have wider implications for Kenya's geothermal development model.

GDC's role has traditionally focused heavily on resource development and steam-field management, while private investors can participate in power generation.

Menengai is an example of this approach.

ThinkGeoEnergy notes that the Menengai model involves GDC undertaking geothermal drilling and steam-field management while private partners develop and operate power plants.

Kaishan's expanded involvement could potentially provide another demonstration of how this structure can attract private investment into geothermal fields outside Olkaria.

The model is particularly relevant because drilling and resource development carry substantial subsurface risk.

An investor that can combine geothermal technology, financing capacity, project development experience and long-term operations could potentially participate across multiple stages of the value chain.

What the Deal Could Mean for Kenya's Geothermal Pipeline

Kenya has significant geothermal potential, but converting geological resources into operating power plants requires years of exploration, drilling, testing, infrastructure development and financing.

The new agreement potentially connects five major geothermal areas with an international developer that already has operational experience in Kenya.

That could accelerate discussions around projects that have previously been progressing through separate stages of exploration.

It could also create competition for geothermal development opportunities, potentially bringing additional capital and technical expertise into the sector.

But the ultimate impact will depend on whether the framework advances into binding project agreements.

The next major signal will therefore not simply be another announcement.

It will be evidence of resource assessments, development plans, financing commitments and binding agreements for individual blocks.

A New Geothermal-Industrial Model for Kenya?

The most significant element of the agreement may ultimately be its combination of geothermal electricity and industrial production.

Kenya has already demonstrated that geothermal energy can support large-scale electricity generation.

The Kaishan-KenGen fertilizer project is taking the next step by connecting geothermal power to industrial manufacturing.

The new GDC framework could potentially extend that concept into additional geothermal regions.

If geothermal power from new fields can be combined with hydrogen and ammonia production, Kenya could potentially develop a broader geothermal-powered industrial ecosystem.

Such a model would move geothermal energy beyond the traditional objective of supplying electricity to the grid.

The resource could become a platform for:

• Electricity generation
• Green hydrogen
• Green ammonia
• Fertilizer production
• Industrial heat
• Potential future synthetic fuels
• Other electricity-intensive industries

The feasibility of each application would have to be established independently, but the framework shows that the discussion is already moving in that direction.

What Happens Next?

The immediate next phase is expected to focus on due diligence and resource assessment.

For each geothermal block, the parties will need to determine the quality and scale of the resource, development requirements and commercial potential.

Existing drilling data will be particularly important in areas such as Paka, Korosi, Silali and Baringo, while Suswa may require further exploration as development progresses.

The results will then inform decisions about the scale, configuration and economics of potential power projects.

If viable development plans are agreed, the parties can move toward legally binding agreements for individual blocks.

That is when the headline 2 GW opportunity could begin to translate into specific projects.

Kenya's Geothermal Story Is Entering Another Phase

The Kaishan-GDC framework is significant because it combines several developments already taking place within Kenya's geothermal industry.

GDC is expanding exploration beyond Olkaria.

Private developers are participating in geothermal power generation.

Kaishan has established an operating footprint at Menengai.

KenGen and Kaishan are pursuing geothermal-powered fertilizer production.

And the latest framework introduces the possibility of linking future geothermal generation with hydrogen and ammonia production.

The 2 GW figure remains potential capacity, not committed capacity. That distinction will be critical as the projects move forward.

But the underlying opportunity is substantial.

Five geothermal blocks—Silali, Paka, Korosi, Baringo and Suswa—are now covered by a framework that could bring together Kenya's geothermal resource-development expertise and Kaishan's international project-development capabilities.

If the subsequent technical and commercial assessments support development, the agreement could become a foundation for a much larger geothermal portfolio.

For now, the next chapter begins with due diligence.

Kenya has the resource potential. Kaishan has entered the framework. The question now is how much of the potential 2 GW can ultimately be converted into operating geothermal capacity—and how much additional value can be created from the electricity beyond the grid.

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