KenGen Risks Losing Olkaria Wells Over 18-Year Licence Blunder Kenya Electricity Generating Company (KenGen) faces a serious legal and operational risk at Olkaria after an error in the coordinates of its geothermal licence left part of the company’s wells, steam infrastructure and other assets outside its legally recognised area. The licensing mistake, made nearly two decades ago, remains unresolved despite the Ministry of Energy and Petroleum acknowledging the problem in 2017. The dispute has raised questions about the security of KenGen’s investments, the government’s management of geothermal resources and the potential consequences for Kenya’s electricity supply. Olkaria is the country’s most important geothermal centre and accounts for the overwhelming majority of Kenya’s installed geothermal generation capacity. Licence Error Exposes Strategic Assets The problem dates back to September 19, 2008, when the Ministry of Energy and Petroleum issued KenGen a licence covering ...
Global Geothermal Investment 2026: 15 Markets Where Developers Should Look Next
Geothermal energy is entering its most investable decade yet, with developers, drilling contractors, turbine suppliers and private capital providers scanning a widening map of opportunities beyond the traditional “big five” producers. This article profiles 15 markets where project pipelines, policy signals, resource quality and technology readiness converge to create compelling entry points in 2026 and beyond.
Why 2026 Is a Turning Point for Geothermal Capital
Global geothermal investment is accelerating as governments seek firm, low‑carbon baseload to back up variable wind and solar, while advanced drilling and subsurface engineering lower costs and expand the resource base. Market analysts project the geothermal energy market to reach roughly USD 13.56 billion by 2030, up from about USD 9.81 billion in 2025, implying sustained double‑digit growth in development spend. Capital is flowing not only into conventional hydrothermal projects but also into enhanced geothermal systems (EGS), closed‑loop pilots, direct‑use heating and hybrid configurations with data centers and industrial offtakers.
For developers and investors, 2026 offers a rare combination: maturing policy frameworks in multiple regions, a growing pool of de‑risked prospects, and a technology ecosystem that can tackle deeper, hotter and more distributed resources. [2][6][8] The result is a broader, more diversified opportunity set across East Africa, Southeast Asia, Europe, North America and select Latin American and island markets.
East Africa: Kenya and Ethiopia Lead a Continental Surge
Kenya: The Anchor Market With Room to Run
Kenya remains Africa’s geothermal flagship, with the Rift Valley hosting one of the world’s highest‑quality hydrothermal resources and a proven track record of large‑scale development. The country already derives a substantial share of its electricity from geothermal, and national plans target further capacity additions to meet rising demand and displace fossil generation. Ongoing and planned projects in the Menengai, Olkaria and surrounding fields continue to attract international developers, EPCs and equipment suppliers.
For 2026, Kenya’s opportunity profile includes:
- Additional utility‑scale plants under public–private frameworks, with tenders and PPAs still in the pipeline.
- Direct‑use applications for greenhouses, agro‑processing and district heating near existing fields.
- EGS and deep drilling pilots that can leverage existing infrastructure and data.
Drilling contractors, mud engineers, turbine OEMs and O&M specialists can find steady work here, while investors can access relatively bankable cash flows once PPAs are secured.
Ethiopia: Untapped Potential Meets Reform Momentum
Ethiopia hosts vast geothermal resources along the East African Rift, with identified fields capable of supporting several gigawatts of capacity over time. Past progress has been uneven due to financing and offtake challenges, but recent reforms and renewed multilateral support are improving the investment climate. The Aluto Langano and Corbetti projects illustrate both the scale of the resource and the complexity of bringing large geothermal schemes to financial close in the region.
Key 2026 angles for Ethiopia:
- Continued push for IPP‑style geothermal projects with international lenders and development finance institutions.
- Opportunities for early‑stage exploration partners who can pair technical capability with risk‑sharing structures.
- Potential for direct‑use in agro‑industry and urban heating as cities expand.
Ethiopia is higher‑risk than Kenya but offers some of the largest remaining greenfield geothermal upside in Africa.
Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Indonesia, Philippines, Japan and New Zealand
Indonesia: A Mature Base With Next‑Generation Upside
Indonesia is one of the world’s top geothermal producers, with extensive volcanic resources across Sumatra, Java, Sulawesi and other islands. The government has long promoted geothermal as a cornerstone of its renewable strategy, and a substantial pipeline of projects remains in various stages of development. Recent policy adjustments and tariff reforms aim to improve bankability and attract fresh capital after a period of slower activity.
In 2026, Indonesia’s appeal lies in:
- A deep inventory of identified fields ready for drilling and plant construction.
- Growing interest in EGS and hybrid systems to access resources beyond conventional reservoirs.
- Strong local supply chains for drilling, civil works and O&M, reducing execution risk for foreign partners.
Developers with experience in complex permitting and community engagement can find attractive risk‑adjusted returns, especially where offtake terms are clear.
Philippines: Re‑igniting a Dormant Giant
The Philippines once ranked among the global leaders in geothermal capacity, but development slowed in the 2010s amid policy uncertainty and competing fuels.]Recent administrations have signaled renewed support for geothermal as part of a broader push for energy security and decarbonization. [4] Existing fields in Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao provide a foundation for repowering, expansion and new builds.
2026 opportunities include:
- Rehabilitation and uprating of aging plants with modern turbines and digital O&M.
- New concessions in underexploited volcanic belts, often with government backing.
- Potential for direct‑use in tourism, agriculture and industrial heat.
For developers and technology providers, the Philippines offers a familiar regulatory environment and a workforce with decades of geothermal experience.
Japan: Re‑entry With Advanced Technology
Japan holds significant geothermal potential, particularly in Tohoku, Kyushu and Hokkaido, but development has been constrained by protected areas, hot‑spring interests and lengthy permitting. Post‑Fukushima energy policy and net‑zero commitments have revived interest, with a focus on smaller, lower‑impact projects and advanced technologies that can operate within tighter environmental and social constraints.
In 2026, Japan’s niche is:
- Binary and medium‑temperature plants that can be developed with reduced surface footprint.
- EGS and closed‑loop pilots designed to minimize impacts on hot springs and national parks.
- Corporate PPAs and local utility partnerships for firm, 24/7 renewable power.
Technology companies with compact, modular designs and strong environmental performance stand out here, even if project timelines are longer than in emerging markets.
New Zealand: Stable Rules, High‑Quality Resources
New Zealand combines excellent geothermal resources with a stable regulatory framework and experienced local developers. The Taupō Volcanic Zone and other regions host numerous operating plants, with room for incremental expansions and new fields where grid and consent conditions align.
For 2026, New Zealand offers:
- Brownfield expansions and repowering opportunities with modern equipment.
- Direct‑use projects for district heating, tourism and industrial processes.
- A testbed for EGS and advanced reservoir management techniques in a well‑understood geological setting.
While the market is smaller than Indonesia or the Philippines, its predictability makes it attractive for long‑term investors and technology demonstrators.
Eurasia and Europe: Türkiye, Iceland, Italy, France and Germany
Türkiye: Rapid Growth in Power and Heat
Türkiye has emerged as one of Europe’s fastest‑growing geothermal markets, driven by strong resources in the west, supportive policies and a push for domestic energy. The country has added significant geothermal capacity in the past decade for both electricity and district heating, with numerous private developers active in the Aegean and Marmara regions.
2026 highlights for Türkiye:
- Continued roll‑out of medium‑size geothermal power plants with local and foreign capital.
- Expansion of geothermal district heating networks in cities and towns.
- Opportunities for binary technology, reinjection optimization and emissions control.
Türkiye’s combination of resource quality, policy support and proximity to European supply chains makes it a core market for developers and equipment vendors.
Iceland: Mature Market, High‑Tech Frontier
Iceland is a global geothermal leader, with a large share of its electricity and heating supplied by geothermal sources. The market is mature, with most major fields already developed, but the country remains a hub for innovation in deep drilling, EGS and industrial applications.
In 2026, Iceland’s role is more about technology and know‑how than greenfield megawatts:
- Deep and super‑hot rock drilling pilots that inform global EGS strategies.
- Integration of geothermal with data centers, hydrogen production and carbon capture.
- Export of engineering expertise, training and specialized equipment.
For technology companies and research‑oriented investors, Iceland offers a high‑visibility platform to validate next‑generation concepts.
Italy: Reviving Larderello and Beyond
Italy hosts Europe’s oldest geothermal power industry, centered on Tuscany’s Larderello–Travale–Radicondoli area. While the core fields are long‑established, there is ongoing interest in life extension, efficiency upgrades and limited new development in other regions.
2026 opportunities in Italy include:
- Repowering and modernization of existing plants with higher‑efficiency turbines and digital controls.
- Exploration of new prospects in southern Italy and the islands, subject to permitting and environmental review.
- Direct‑use schemes for heating, tourism and agro‑industry in geothermally active zones.
Italy’s strong regulatory environment and skilled workforce make it suitable for conservative, long‑life assets and technology demonstrations.
France: Geothermal for Cities and Industry
France has focused heavily on geothermal for district heating, particularly in the Paris Basin and the Alsace region, with a smaller but notable power portfolio. National and EU policies favor low‑carbon heating solutions, positioning geothermal as a strategic option for urban decarbonization.
In 2026, France’s geothermal story is:
- Expansion of deep geothermal district heating networks in and around major cities.
- EGS and doublet projects in the Rhine Graben and sedimentary basins for heat and some power.
- Industrial heat applications where stable, high‑temperature supply can replace gas.
Developers with experience in urban projects, heat offtake contracts and public–private models will find France a compelling, if regulated, market.
Germany: Policy Support Meets Technical Ambition
Germany has pursued geothermal for both power and heat, with notable activity in Bavaria, the North German Basin and the Upper Rhine Graben. Policy mechanisms, including feed‑in tariffs and heating incentives, have supported a steady pipeline, though some high‑profile EGS projects have faced technical and seismic challenges.
2026 priorities for Germany:
- Continued development of geothermal district heating in Munich and other cities. [4][10]
- Careful EGS and deep geothermal pilots with enhanced monitoring and risk mitigation.
- Repowering and optimization of existing plants to improve capacity factors and economics.
Germany is attractive for technology providers and developers comfortable with rigorous permitting, monitoring and stakeholder engagement.
North America: USA and Canada as Innovation Hubs
The United States remains the world’s largest geothermal electricity producer, with major resources in the West and significant direct‑use potential nationwide. The U.S. Department of Energy’s Enhanced Geothermal Shot aims to dramatically reduce costs and unlock geothermal across much of the country by advancing EGS and related technologies.
In 2026, the U.S. opportunity set spans:
- Expansion and repowering of classic fields such as The Geysers, Coso and others in California and Nevada.
- EGS and closed‑loop pilots in states with strong policy support and research ecosystems.
- Direct‑use for district heating, greenhouses, aquaculture and industrial processes, particularly in the Intermountain West and Alaska.
The U.S. offers deep capital markets, a robust service sector and a policy environment increasingly aligned with firm, clean power, making it a prime market for both conventional and next‑generation geothermal.
Canada’s geothermal sector is nascent but gaining traction, driven by net‑zero targets, oil‑and‑gas expertise and interest in firm renewable power for remote and northern communities. Several provinces, including British Columbia, Alberta and Saskatchewan, are exploring geothermal alongside carbon management and hydrogen strategies.
2026 themes for Canada:
- Pilot and demonstration projects leveraging oilfield drilling capabilities and data.
- Potential for geothermal‑CCUS and geothermal‑hydrogen hubs in western Canada.
- District heating and industrial heat applications in resource‑rich regions.
Canada is a longer‑game market, but its technical talent, capital depth and policy direction make it a strategic watchlist name for developers and technology firms.
Asia and Latin America: India and El Salvador as Niche Plays
India: Geothermal in a Solar‑Dominated Landscape
India’s geothermal potential is modest compared to its solar and wind resources, but identified fields in states such as Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh and Ladakh offer niche opportunities for direct‑use and small power. Government interest has been intermittent, but energy security concerns and regional development goals keep geothermal on the agenda.
In 2026, India’s geothermal angle is:
- Small‑scale power and direct‑use projects in remote or mountainous areas where other renewables face constraints.
- Research and pilot activities in partnership with public institutions and international collaborators.
- Potential integration with tourism, spas and local industry in geothermally active zones.
India is not a core geothermal market, but it can host targeted projects where geothermal’s firm, local nature offers distinct advantages.
El Salvador: Geothermal as a National Strategic Asset
El Salvador derives a significant share of its electricity from geothermal, making it one of the most geothermal‑dependent countries in the world. The resource is concentrated in volcanic zones, with several operating plants and scope for further development.
2026 opportunities in El Salvador:
- Expansion and modernization of existing geothermal fields to maintain and increase output.
- Exploration of new prospects with support from multilateral lenders and regional partners.
- Direct‑use applications for agriculture, tourism and local industry.
El Salvador’s small size and high geothermal penetration make it a focused, high‑impact market for developers and suppliers with emerging‑market experience.
2026 Geothermal Opportunity Watchlist
For developers, investors, drilling contractors, turbine OEMs and technology providers, the following 15 markets represent the most compelling geothermal opportunity sets in 2026:
- Kenya – Proven resource, active pipeline, direct‑use and EGS upside.
- Ethiopia– Large greenfield potential with reform and multilateral support.
-Indonesia – Mature base, deep project inventory, next‑gen EGS prospects.
-Philippines – Dormant giant re‑igniting, repowering and new concessions.
-Türkiy – Rapid growth in power and heat, strong policy tailwinds.
- Iceland – High‑tech frontier for deep drilling, EGS and industrial integration.
- USA – Largest producer, EGS leadership, broad direct‑use potential.
- Canada – Emerging market with oilfield synergies and net‑zero alignment.
- Japan– Re‑entry with advanced, low‑impact technologies and corporate PPAs.
- New Zealand– Stable rules, high‑quality resources, brownfield and EGS options.
- Italy – Repowering legacy assets, selective new prospects, strong know‑how.
- France – Geothermal heating for cities, EGS in key basins, industrial heat.
- Germany heating expansion, careful EGS, technology testing ground.
- India Niche direct‑use and small power in specific regions.
- El Salvador – High geothermal dependence, expansion and modernization potential.
Across these markets, the common threads are clear: supportive policy directions, identifiable resources, and a technology toolkit that now includes conventional hydrothermal, EGS, closed‑loop and hybrid configurations. For capital providers, geothermal offers decades of stable, inflation‑linked cash flows once exploration risk is managed, while for technology firms it offers a global laboratory for scaling next‑generation systems.
Developers, suppliers and investors seeking deeper intelligence on specific projects, tenders, offtakers and financing structures in these 15 markets are invited to connect with Alphaxioms for tailored briefings, market maps and deal‑flow support.
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