KenGen Risks Losing Olkaria Wells Over 18-Year Licence Blunder Kenya Electricity Generating Company (KenGen) faces a serious legal and operational risk at Olkaria after an error in the coordinates of its geothermal licence left part of the company’s wells, steam infrastructure and other assets outside its legally recognised area. The licensing mistake, made nearly two decades ago, remains unresolved despite the Ministry of Energy and Petroleum acknowledging the problem in 2017. The dispute has raised questions about the security of KenGen’s investments, the government’s management of geothermal resources and the potential consequences for Kenya’s electricity supply. Olkaria is the country’s most important geothermal centre and accounts for the overwhelming majority of Kenya’s installed geothermal generation capacity. Licence Error Exposes Strategic Assets The problem dates back to September 19, 2008, when the Ministry of Energy and Petroleum issued KenGen a licence covering ...
Best US States for Geothermal Investment in 2026: Top Markets, Growth Opportunities, and Investor Insights
Best US States for Geothermal Investment
The best US states for geothermal investment are California, Nevada, Utah, New Mexico, and Texas, with Oregon, Idaho, Alaska, and Arizona also offering attractive upside depending on whether you want operating assets, early-stage development, or next-generation geothermal exposure.
Geothermal is becoming a broader investment story than it was a few years ago. Stronger drilling methods, rising demand for firm clean power, and more state-level policy support are widening the field beyond the traditional western hot spots.
Introduction
For investors, geothermal is one of the few clean energy technologies that can deliver round-the-clock power with a relatively small land footprint. That reliability is a big advantage in a market where utilities, data centers, and industrial customers increasingly want clean electricity that behaves more like conventional baseload generation.
The challenge is that geothermal is highly location-dependent. The quality of the resource, the ease of permitting, access to transmission, and the strength of local policy all shape whether a project becomes a strong asset or a slow-moving capital sink.
Why state choice matters
Not every state offers the same type of geothermal opportunity. Some states are already mature markets with operating plants, proven geologies, and established buyers, while others are still emerging but have strong potential for enhanced geothermal systems and new project models.
That is why investors need to think in layers. A state with a large existing fleet may be ideal for acquisitions and operating cash flow, while a state with strong subsurface promise and supportive policy may be better for long-term growth.
The most attractive states tend to combine resource quality with practical advantages. Those include transmission access, experienced service providers, utility interest, and a policy environment that makes it easier to move from exploration to financing and construction.
California leads today
California remains the most important geothermal state in the country. It hosts the largest share of US geothermal power plants and the bulk of national installed capacity, which makes it the deepest and most proven market.
The state’s geothermal hubs are also geographically diverse. The Geysers, the Salton Sea region, Coso Hot Springs, and Mammoth Lakes each offer a different investment profile, from mature operating fields to areas with future expansion potential.
For investors, California offers the strongest track record and the most established market infrastructure. If your goal is to invest in an operating asset, expansion opportunity, or portfolio-scale geothermal position, California belongs at the top of the list.
Still, California is not the easiest place to start. Competition is intense, permitting can be complex, and many of the best-known resource areas are already occupied by experienced operators. In other words, the upside is clear, but the entry barrier is higher.
Nevada has strong momentum
Nevada is usually the next state investors look at after California. It has a substantial geothermal footprint, a proven resource base, and a strong reputation as a place where both conventional geothermal and next-generation approaches can be advanced.
What makes Nevada especially interesting is the combination of resource quality and innovation. It is one of the states where enhanced geothermal has begun to move from concept toward commercial relevance, which gives it a very different risk-reward profile from older geothermal markets.
Nevada is also attractive because it sits at the center of the western clean power story. Utilities and corporate buyers are increasingly interested in reliable carbon-free power, and that demand supports geothermal project development in a way that is easier to finance than a purely speculative play.
For investors who want a market with a real operating base and meaningful growth potential, Nevada is one of the strongest choices in the country.
Utah offers upside
Utah deserves serious attention because it combines current geothermal activity with very large untapped potential. It is not yet as developed as California or Nevada, but it may become one of the most important geothermal growth states over time.
The state is especially relevant for enhanced geothermal systems. Its geology, research activity, and demonstration projects have made it a key proving ground for next-generation development, which is exactly the kind of environment investors want to watch if they are looking beyond existing power plants.
Utah is attractive because the market still has room to run. That means an investor can find early-stage opportunity without competing solely for mature, fully priced assets.
The tradeoff is that Utah requires more patience. Development timelines can be long, technical risks are higher, and commercial scale will depend on continued progress in drilling, reservoir creation, and project financing.
New Mexico is emerging
New Mexico is not yet a dominant geothermal state, but it is increasingly relevant in the next wave of US development. It is part of the broader southwestern opportunity set, and its role is growing as policymakers and developers look for reliable clean power options that can serve future demand.
This matters because geothermal is no longer only about legacy plants. As the market expands into new regions, states that can support early-stage development and utility procurement will become much more valuable.
New Mexico has appeal because it sits in a region where geothermal, oilfield expertise, and clean energy demand can intersect. That mix can lower development friction, especially when developers can draw on an experienced energy workforce and existing infrastructure knowledge.
For investors, New Mexico is best viewed as an emerging bet. It may not deliver the immediate scale of California, but it could become much more important as the market for firm clean power expands.
Texas is a big opportunity
Texas is one of the most interesting emerging geothermal markets because of its scale. The state has massive electricity demand, a strong industrial base, and an energy culture that is already comfortable with large-scale infrastructure development.
That combination matters. Geothermal needs buyers who value reliability, and Texas has more potential load growth than many other states, especially from industrial users, data centers, and broader electrification trends.
Texas also benefits from oil and gas expertise. The state has a deep drilling workforce, service ecosystem, and project execution culture that could transfer into geothermal development, especially as the technology becomes more commercial and more standardized.
The risk is that Texas is still early in the geothermal adoption curve. Investors should treat it as a frontier growth market rather than a mature geothermal destination. But if the technology scales the way many expect, Texas could become one of the most important long-term markets in the country.
Oregon, Idaho, and Alaska
Oregon is a state to watch because it has research relevance and superhot geothermal potential. It may not yet have the same commercial depth as California or Nevada, but it is strategically important in the next-generation conversation.
Idaho has a long geothermal history and remains meaningful for both direct-use applications and resource development. It is not usually the first state people mention, but it has credibility and technical importance in the broader US geothermal landscape.
Alaska has resource promise, but the market is harder to develop. Scale, logistics, and geography make project execution more difficult, which means investment is usually more selective and project-specific.
These states are worth tracking, but they are more niche than the top-tier geothermal markets. They are better suited to specialized developers, research-driven projects, or long-horizon investors who want exposure outside the mainstream western corridor.
Best ranking
If the goal is to rank states for geothermal investment today, California stands out first because of its market depth and installed base. Nevada follows closely because it offers both proven resources and strong next-generation potential.
Utah comes next because of its large resource upside and role in enhanced geothermal development. New Mexico and Texas follow as emerging states with meaningful long-term upside if demand growth and policy support continue.
Oregon, Idaho, and Alaska round out the list as selective opportunities with strong technical or resource significance. They may not offer the broadest immediate market, but they matter in the future of geothermal expansion.
What investors should track
The smartest geothermal investors watch more than geology. They track policy support, utility procurement, transmission access, drilling performance, and how quickly projects can move from exploration to financing.
They also watch corporate demand. Data centers, industrial buyers, and utilities increasingly want firm clean power, and that creates a stronger commercial case for geothermal than existed in earlier cycles.
Another important signal is the growth of next-generation geothermal capital. More money is flowing into advanced concepts, and that is slowly changing which states look most attractive.
If a state has the right mix of resource potential, workforce capability, and policy momentum, it can move quickly from “interesting” to “investment-grade.” That is exactly what happened with California historically, and it is the pattern Nevada and Utah are now trying to extend.
Conclusion
The best US states for geothermal investment are not all the same kind of opportunity. California is the mature leader, Nevada is the growth engine, Utah has standout upside, and New Mexico and Texas are emerging markets with large future potential.
For investors, the real question is not just where the heat is. It is where the resource, policy, market demand, and execution environment come together strongly enough to create durable returns.
This article was researched and written by Robert Buluma with insights from Alphaxioms
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