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"US Geothermal Tax Credits 2026: What the IRA/45Q Changes Mean for Developers"

US Geothermal Tax Credits in 2026: What Is Actually Still Alive After OBBBA For an industry that spent more than a decade building financial models around a stable federal incentive structure, 2026 has been a year of whiplash. The 30% federal geothermal tax credit that developers and homeowners built forecasts around is gone in one form and still alive in another, and even the IRS’s own public guidance has been confusing enough to trigger uncertainty across the market. That confusion is not a minor clerical issue. It is shaping investment decisions, contractor sales pitches, homeowner timelines, and project finance assumptions right now. If you work in geothermal, the key question is no longer whether federal incentives exist, but which incentive applies, to which project type, and under what ownership structure. The law that changed the timeline To understand where things stand in 2026, you have to start with the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, which created a long runway for clean e...

International Energy Agency Reports Rising Geothermal Potential

The Rising Potential of Geothermal Energy: Insights from the IEA

The Internationa geel Energy Agency (IEA) has shed light on the transformative potential of geothermal energy in its latest report. As a clean, renewable resource, geothermal is uniquely positioned to play a vital role in achieving global climate goals, thanks to its reliability and diverse applications. The report emphasizes the urgent need for investments, technological innovation, and supportive policies to maximize geothermal's contribution to the energy transition.

Earlier on we reported on the agencies deep dive into critical minerals and we are fascinated to keep our readers on track.

Current Status and Future Projections

Geothermal energy is currently underutilized, generating 67 TWh of electricity annually. However, with enhanced deployment strategies, this figure could soar to 1,400 TWh by 2050. Additionally, direct applications of geothermal heat could rise to 1,600 TWh annually. This growth would significantly impact decarbonization efforts, reducing reliance on fossil fuels while providing consistent baseload power and heat.

Global Leaders in Geothermal Deployment

Countries like Indonesia, Kenya, the United States, and Iceland are already leveraging their geothermal resources. Kenya, for instance, continues to expand its capacity at the Olkaria geothermal fields, while Iceland utilizes geothermal heat for 90% of its space heating. Meanwhile, Indonesia is tapping into its abundant geothermal potential, aiming to become a global leader in the sector.

Applications Beyond Power Generation

The IEA underscores geothermal’s versatility, extending beyond electricity generation. Geothermal heat is increasingly used in district heating systems, agriculture, aquaculture, and industrial processes. For example, greenhouses in the Netherlands rely on geothermal energy for sustainable farming, while countries like Turkey have developed geothermal district heating networks.

Overcoming Barriers to Expansion

Despite its promise, geothermal energy faces significant challenges. High upfront exploration and drilling costs deter investments, as success rates in identifying viable resources remain low. The IEA recommends improving risk mitigation measures, such as government-backed drilling programs and private-public partnerships, to attract investments. Additionally, the lack of awareness among policymakers about geothermal’s diverse applications has limited its adoption. Enhanced education and promotion of its benefits are crucial to addressing this gap.

Innovation and Collaboration

Technological advancements, such as enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) and supercritical geothermal resource extraction, could unlock vast untapped potential. Collaboration between governments, industries, and research institutions is essential for developing these technologies and overcoming non-technical barriers like regulatory hurdles and land use conflicts.

A Path Forward

The IEA's roadmap outlines key steps for stakeholders to accelerate geothermal adoption, including:

1. Increasing investments in exploration and drilling technologies.

2. Promoting policies that incentivize geothermal development.

3. Enhancing international cooperation to share knowledge and best practices.

The agency envisions a future where geothermal energy becomes a cornerstone of the global energy mix, offering sustainable solutions for electricity and heat while supporting economic growth and environmental preservation. To realize this vision, immediate and concerted efforts from all stakeholders are imperative.

Earlier on IRENA and IGA published a similar research findings on Geothermal which is instrumental

For further insights, explore the full report on the International Energy Agency here

Source:IEA

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