Skip to main content

Geothermal Energy’s Moment in the Sun – But Black Swans Are Casting Shade

For years, geothermal energy has lingered in the shadows of wind and solar power. Now, it's stepping into the spotlight, attracting big-name investors, political endorsements, and global attention as a reliable, renewable, and baseload power source.

However, while geothermal is experiencing an unprecedented rise, a series of unexpected challenges so-called "black swan" events are casting shade over its growth.  

In this article, we’ll explore why geothermal is finally getting the recognition it deserves, why former President Donald Trump has endorsed geothermal while dismissing solar and wind, the high-level negotiations within Chevron and BP on integrating geothermal with oil and gas, and the major hurdles geothermal faces along with strategies to overcome them.  


The Rising Popularity of Geothermal Energy

1. A Reliable and Baseload Renewable Energy Source 
Unlike wind and solar, which depend on weather conditions, geothermal energy provides a constant and uninterrupted power supply. As governments push for energy security amid geopolitical tensions, geothermal is becoming an attractive solution.  

2. Increased Investment from Oil & Gas Giants
Major players like Chevron, BP, and ExxonMobil are exploring ways to transition their expertise in oil and gas drilling into geothermal energy. These companies own the technology, infrastructure, and drilling expertise that can be leveraged to extract heat from the Earth's core.  

3. Government and Policy Support
Countries worldwide are offering tax credits, research grants, and streamlined regulations for geothermal development. The United States, Kenya, Iceland, and Indonesia are leading the charge in unlocking geothermal’s full potential.  

Donald Trump’s Surprising Nod to Geothermal Energy 

While former U.S. President Donald Trump has historically dismissed solar and wind power, calling wind turbines "bird killers" and criticizing their intermittency, he has surprisingly shown support for geothermal energy.  

During his presidency, Trump’s administration prioritized "energy dominance," which included oil, gas, and even high-enthalpy geothermal. Some key points include:  

In 2020, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) under Trump launched the "GeoVision" report, which highlighted geothermal’s potential to provide 16% of U.S. electricity by 2050.  
He praised geothermal’s ability to deliver 24/7 power, unlike wind and solar, which he argued were unreliable.  
He supported deep-drilling technologies, which share similarities with oil and gas extraction, making it easier for the fossil fuel industry to pivot to geothermal.  

This political endorsement has bolstered investor confidence in geothermal while solar and wind continue to face policy uncertainty in Republican-led states.  

The Black Swans Casting Shade Over Geothermal's Future

Despite its growth, geothermal energy is facing serious hurdles that could stall its momentum. 
 1. High Upfront Costs & Financing Challenges
One of the biggest drawbacks of geothermal energy is its expensive upfront investment. Unlike solar and wind, which can be built relatively quickly, geothermal plants require extensive drilling, resource assessments, and infrastructure development before producing electricity.  

How to Overcome This Challenge  
✅ Government-backed risk insurance can mitigate the financial burden for investors.  
✅ Public-private partnerships (PPPs) can spread risk between governments and corporations.  
✅ Innovative financing models, such as carbon credits and green bonds, can make projects more attractive to investors.  


2. Geothermal Exploration Risks  
Unlike oil and gas, where exploration success rates are high, geothermal drilling remains a gamble. Some wells turn out to be dry or underperforming, leading to significant financial losses.  

How to Overcome This Challenge 
✅AI-driven subsurface imaging can improve drilling accuracy and reduce the risk of dry wells.  
✅ Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) can help unlock geothermal potential even in areas with low natural permeability.  

3. Permitting Delays & Bureaucratic Red Tape 
Geothermal projects often face years of permitting and regulatory hurdles. In contrast, solar and wind farms are much faster to deploy.  How to Overcome This Challenge  
✅ Governments must streamline regulatory approvals to fast-track geothermal projects.  
✅ Standardized drilling permits can reduce unnecessary bureaucratic delays.  

4. Public Perception & Environmental Concerns
Despite being a clean energy source, some geothermal projects have raised concerns about seismic activity (e.g., small earthquakes triggered by deep drilling in Switzerland and South Korea).  

How to Overcome This Challenge  
✅ Public awareness campaigns can educate communities on the benefits and safety measures of geothermal energy.  
 Advanced drilling technologies can minimize the risk of induced seismicity.  


Chevron and BP’s High-Level Negotiations on Geothermal-Oil & Gas Integration

With the world moving toward clean energy, oil and gas companies are actively looking for ways to integrate geothermal into their operations. Both Chevron and BP are in high-level negotiations on how best to transition their expertise into geothermal.  

1. Utilizing Existing Oil & Gas Wells
Many depleted oil and gas wells still contain significant amounts of heat. By converting these wells into geothermal sites, companies can extract clean energy without new drilling costs.  

2. Co-Production of Geothermal and Fossil Fuels  
Some oil fields produce hot water as a byproduct. Instead of discarding it, companies can use it to generate geothermal power.  
This strategy would allow oil and gas companies to reduce their carbon footprint while still producing hydrocarbons.  

3. Expanding Direct Heat Applications 
Companies like Chevron and BP are exploring geothermal for industrial heating, greenhouses, and district heating in cities.  
These applications could provide a new revenue stream while utilizing the companies’ existing infrastructure.  

These negotiations indicate that oil and gas giants are serious about integrating geothermal into their future energy portfolios, which could lead to massive scaling of geothermal projects worldwide.  

Why Geothermal Could Still Win the Energy Transition 

Despite the hurdles, geothermal has unique advantages that position it as a long-term winner in the global energy transition:  

1. Geothermal Can Provide Continuous Power  
Unlike wind and solar, which require battery storage, geothermal operates 24/7 without the need for backup energy sources.  

2. Advanced Technologies Are Unlocking New Potential
Innovations such as Closed-Loop Geothermal (Eavor-Loop), Supercritical Geothermal**, and EGS (Enhanced Geothermal Systems are making it possible to generate power from more locations than ever before.

3. Geothermal is Ideal for Hydrogen Production
With the rise of green hydrogen, geothermal can be used to produce hydrogen without relying on fossil fuels, creating a truly clean energy economy.  


 A Critical Crossroads for Geothermal Energy

Geothermal energy is having its moment in the sun, with growing investments, political endorsements (including from Donald Trump), and major oil and gas players like Chevron and BP seeking to integrate geothermal into their business models.  

However, black swan events ranging from high costs, regulatory hurdles, and exploration risks to competition from solar and wind could slow down its momentum.  

To ensure geothermal’s success, industry leaders must:  
✅ Leverage AI and advanced drilling technologies to reduce exploration risks.  
✅ Push for policy reforms that streamline permitting and regulatory processes.  
✅ Partner with oil and gas companies to accelerate geothermal adoption using existing infrastructure.  
✅ Invest in hybrid energy systems, such as geothermal + hydrogen or geothermal + direct heat applications.  




Source:Alphaxioms

Connect with us: Alphaxioms

Comments

Hot Topics 🔥

Eavor’s Geretsried Closed-Loop Geothermal Plant Now Powers the Grid

Eavor Technologies Achieves Historic Milestone: World’s First Commercial-Scale Closed-Loop Geothermal System Now Delivering Power in Geretsried, Germany Published: December 2025 By:  Robert Buluma The Day Geothermal Changed Forever On a crisp Bavarian morning in late 2025, a quiet revolution in clean energy officially went live.   Eavor Technologies Inc ., the Calgary-based pioneer of closed-loop geothermal technology, announced that its flagship commercial project in Geretsried, Germany has begun delivering power to the grid becoming the world’s first utility-scale multilateral closed-loop geothermal system to achieve commercial operation. For anyone who has followed the geothermal sector for the last decade, this is nothing short of seismic (pun intended). What Makes Eavor’s Closed-Loop System Truly Disruptive? Traditional geothermal plants rely on naturally occurring hot water reservoirs or enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) that require hydraulic fracturing and massiv...

Geothermal Energy Powers Next Generation Sustainable Data Centers

Geothermal Power Meets Data Centers in Strategic Shift By: Robert Buluma The global energy landscape is undergoing a profound transformation, and at the heart of this shift lies an unexpected but powerful convergence: geothermal energy and digital infrastructure . In a move that signals both ambition and foresight, Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO) is preparing to expand beyond its traditional role as a power producer and enter the rapidly growing data center industry . This is not just another diversification strategy. It is a calculated leap into the future—one that aligns renewable energy with the insatiable demand for digital services. The implications are far-reaching, not only for Indonesia but for the global energy-tech nexus. A Bold Step Beyond Electricity For decades, geothermal companies have largely focused on one thing: generating electricity. PGEO , a subsidiary of Indonesia’s energy giant Pertamina, has been no exception. With a growing portfolio of geothermal assets and...

LCOE Benchmarking: Eavor Technologies vs. Fervo Energy

LCOE Compared: Eavor Technologies vs.  Fervo Energy   Two Bets on Next-Generation Geothermal An Alphaxioms Geothermal Insights Analysis | May 2026 Image:  Eavor and Fervo Drilling Rigs well poised in their respective well pads , drill baby , baby what a time to be a live Introduction: Why the Cost Question Matters Now The global geothermal sector is in the middle of a pivotal moment. After decades of stagnation largely confined to volcanic hotspots, two fundamentally different technological approaches are racing to prove that geothermal energy can be deployed broadly, cheaply, and at scale. Eavor Technologies , the Calgary-based advanced geothermal systems (AGS) company, and Fervo Energy , the Houston-based enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) pioneer, represent the sharpest divergence in next-generation geothermal strategy today. Each company is backed by hundreds of millions of dollars in private capital, each has reached key commercial milestones, and each is advancing ...

Engie advances geothermal exploration for Réunion Island energy independence

Engie’s Geothermal Ambitions in Réunion Island: A Turning Point for Energy Independence in Volcanic Territories By: Robert Buluma In a world increasingly defined by the urgency of energy transition, remote island territories stand at the frontline of both vulnerability and opportunity. The recent move by to secure a geothermal exploration permit in marks more than just another project milestone—it signals a potential transformation in how isolated regions harness their natural resources to break free from fossil fuel dependency. This development, centered in the Cafres-Palmistes highlands, is not merely about drilling wells or building a power plant. It is about unlocking the immense geothermal promise hidden beneath volcanic landscapes, navigating environmental sensitivities, and setting a precedent for sustainable energy in island economies worldwide. A Strategic Foothold in Volcanic Terrain Réunion Island, located east of Madagascar in the Indian Ocean, is a geological marvel...

Ormat raises concerns over Kenya Power payment delays

When Power Stalls: Payment Delays Threaten Kenya’s Geothermal Momentum By: Robert Buluma Kenya’s geothermal story has long been told as one of Africa’s most compelling energy success narratives—a nation that dared to dig deep into the Earth and emerged with a reliable, renewable backbone for its electricity grid. From the steaming plains of Olkaria to the ambitious expansions across the Rift Valley, geothermal has positioned Kenya as a continental leader in clean baseload power. But beneath this success lies a growing tension—one that could quietly undermine the very foundation of this progress. Recent signals from , one of Kenya’s key independent power producers, have cast a spotlight on a familiar yet dangerous challenge: delayed payments from . What may appear as a routine financial hiccup is, in reality, a warning sign with far-reaching implications for investment, energy security, and the future trajectory of geothermal development in Kenya. The Backbone of Kenya’s Energy System T...

BRIN and Geo Dipa Advance Modular Geothermal Wellhead Power

BRIN and Geo Dipa Pioneer Modular Wellhead Technology for Small-Scale Geothermal Power Revolution By: Robert Buluma Opening Perspective: A Quiet Revolution at the Wellhead Across Indonesia’s volcanic arc, geothermal energy has long been viewed through the lens of massive power stations—multi-well, multi-megawatt installations requiring years of development and heavy capital investment. But a quieter transformation is emerging. Instead of waiting years for large-scale geothermal plants, engineers and researchers are now asking a radical question: What if geothermal power could begin at the wellhead itself—small, fast, modular, and locally distributed? This is exactly the direction being taken by Indonesia’s national research agency BRIN in collaboration with state geothermal developer Geo Dipa Energi . Their joint effort to develop modular wellhead technology for small-scale geothermal power plants represents one of the most important shifts in geothermal development strategy in...

Star Energy Begins Lampung Geothermal Drilling, Unlocking Indonesia’s Potential

Star Energy’s Lampung Drilling Campaign: Indonesia’s Next Geothermal Frontier Awakens The ground beneath Lampung has waited long enough. For years, the Sekincau geothermal prospect in southern Sumatra existed as a promise—mapped, studied, debated, and cautiously anticipated. Beneath its surface lies a force that has powered civilizations in silence: geothermal energy. Now, that silence is about to be broken. In 2026, is preparing to initiate what could become one of the most consequential geothermal drilling campaigns in Indonesia’s recent history. The move signals more than just another exploration program—it marks a decisive step into Indonesia’s next geothermal frontier. This is not just drilling. This is ignition. The Sekincau Prospect: From Geological Promise to Strategic Reality Located in Lampung Province, the Sekincau geothermal field represents a classic greenfield opportunity—untapped, uncertain, and filled with both risk and transformative potential. Unlike brownfield expan...

Daiwa Can Launches Offsite Corporate PPA with Kyuden, TEPCO

Geothermal Power Meets Corporate Demand: A New Era of Offsite PPA Decarbonization In a world racing toward decarbonization, one truth is becoming increasingly clear: renewable energy must not only be clean—it must also be reliable. While solar and wind have dominated the conversation for years, their intermittency continues to challenge industries that rely on uninterrupted power. Now, a groundbreaking development from Japan is redefining what corporate renewable energy procurement can look like, and at the center of it lies geothermal power. In April 2026, Daiwa Can Company, in partnership with Kyuden Mirai Energy and Tokyo Electric Power Company Energy Partner, launched an innovative offsite corporate Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) powered by geothermal energy. This initiative is more than just a contract—it represents a paradigm shift in how industries can secure stable, low-carbon electricity while mitigating operational risks. The Rising Importance of Corporate PPAs Corporate ...

KenGen’s Sh32bn project stalled amid donor funding dispute

Donor Funding Row Freezes KenGen’s Sh32 Billion Geothermal Ambition A Billion-Shilling Dream Stalls in Kenya’s Energy Heartland By:  Robert Buluma In the shadow of the steaming vents and rugged volcanic terrain of Hell’s Gate National Park, one of Kenya’s most ambitious clean energy expansions has hit an unexpected wall. The multi-billion-shilling geothermal project led by the Kenya Electricity Generating Company (KenGen) — valued at approximately Sh32 billion — has been frozen following a donor funding dispute. What was once a symbol of Kenya’s global leadership in geothermal energy now finds itself entangled in financial uncertainty, bureaucratic friction, and the fragile nature of international development financing. The pause is more than a delay in infrastructure delivery. It is a signal of how modern energy transitions, even in globally admired renewable hubs like Kenya, are still deeply dependent on external capital flows, policy alignment, and institutional trust betwe...

Oil Giant Goes Deep for Clean Heat: Occidental Drills 4 Miles Underground in Colorado – Fastest Superduper Geothermal Well Yet

The Quiet Revolution Underground: How an Oil Giant Drilled 4 Miles Deep for Geothermal Heat And What It Means for the Future of Clean Energy By:  Robert Buluma  Date:March 6, 2026 Imagine this: In the flat, oil-soaked plains of Weld County, Colorado—where drilling rigs have long been synonymous with fossil fuels—a massive rig rises quietly last spring. No fanfare, no press releases blasting headlines. Just Occidental Petroleum (Oxy) , the oil behemoth better known for pumping black gold, sinking twin boreholes nearly four miles (about 20,000 feet) into the Earth. Not for oil or gas this time—but for something far more revolutionary: limitless, carbon-free heat from the planet's depths. Completed in under six weeks starting April 2025, this secretive project—dubbed GLADE (Geothermal Limitless Approach to Drilling Efficiencies)—has sent ripples through the geothermal world. Backed by a $9 million U.S. Department of Energy grant from 2022, GLADE wasn't about extracting hydrocarb...