Exclusive Insights from INL's Trevor Atkinson: The Future of Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS), Critical Minerals, and Why Geothermal Lags Behind Wind & Solar
Published on Alphaxioms Geothermal Insghts
Date: [February 26, 2026]
In a detailed email interview, Trevor Atkinson, Research Scientist in Geothermal Energy and Subsurface Systems at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), shares candid perspectives on the field's priorities, breakthroughs, barriers, and potential. His work focuses on subsurface characterization, reactive-transport modeling, AI optimization, and integrating geothermal with critical mineral recovery.
1. What is INL’s most important geothermal research priority today, and why?
Advancing Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) through physics-based modeling and AI-driven optimization. My research focuses on subsurface characterization and reactive-transport modeling, which are essential for predicting fluid–rock interactions and permeability evolution. These capabilities reduce uncertainty in reservoir creation and improve operational control two critical hurdles for EGS scalability.
2.Where does geothermal rank inside DOE/INL’s clean energy priorities compared to nuclear, hydrogen, and batteries?
Geothermal is strategically important but still behind nuclear in terms of funding and visibility. Nuclear is INL’s flagship, while hydrogen and storage technologies have strong momentum. Geothermal is gaining traction because it offers baseload renewable power, complementing intermittent sources like wind and solar.
3. What geothermal breakthroughs has INL contributed to that the public doesn’t talk about enough?
INL has advanced reactive-transport modeling for geothermal reservoirs and AI-assisted optimization for thermal energy storage. For example, our team published on machine-learning-assisted reservoir thermal energy storage optimization and predictive modeling at FORGE tools that help forecast mineralogical changes and porosity evolution.
4. If INL had to pick ONE geothermal technology to bet on for the next 10 years, what would it be?
EGS coupled with critical mineral recovery clean energy plus domestic lithium supply. My recent work on Smackover Formation brines and ISR modeling shows how subsurface chemistry can support both energy and resource extraction.
5. Is EGS truly commercially viable today, or still a “science project”?
It’s still early-stage with demonstrations being conducted as we speak at FORGE and Fervo Energy. Technical feasibility is proven at sites like FORGE, but scaling requires cost reductions in drilling and reservoir stimulation, plus robust risk management for induced seismicity.
6. Biggest barrier holding EGS back?
Drilling cost and reservoir creation uncertainty. Induced seismicity is a public perception challenge but technically manageable with monitoring and adaptive injection strategies.
7. Most realistic cost target for EGS to compete with solar + batteries?
DOE targets around $45–$60/MWh. Achieving that means cutting drilling costs and improving reservoir performance.
8. Most misunderstood thing about EGS by policymakers and investors?
That it’s not just drilling deeper wells,it’s about creating and sustaining a permeable reservoir under extreme conditions.
9. If induced seismicity is inevitable, what’s the acceptable risk threshold?
Typically magnitude thresholds around M2–M3 for operational limits.
10. How close are we to cutting drilling costs by 30–50%, and what tech will do it?
Not there yet. Promising technologies include advanced PDC bits, thermal-resistant materials, and AI-driven drilling optimization.
11. Can geothermal ever match shale drilling speed and cost?
Not without major changes. Geothermal needs better high-temperature tools and standardized well designs to approach that.
12. Biggest failure modes of geothermal wells INL has seen repeatedly?
Scaling and corrosion, plus thermal stress cracking and casing integrity failures. My reactive-transport modeling work addresses scaling by predicting mineral precipitation under varying chemistries.
13. Must-have well design philosophy today?
Design for thermal cycling and chemical compatibility. Materials selection and corrosion-resistant alloys are critical. Also, integrate real-time monitoring DFOS and ERT based on my sensing experience.
14. Do we have enough subsurface data to scale geothermal rapidly?
Not yet. We’re still “blind drilling” in many regions. Data repositories like DOE’s Geothermal Data Repository help, but site-specific characterization remains a bottleneck.
15. Temperature range for supercritical tipping point?
Generally 374°C and above at sufficient pressure, but practical deployment depends on material limits.
16. Biggest engineering problem: materials, well integrity, scaling/corrosion, or power conversion?
From my perspective: materials and scaling/corrosion. Reactive-transport modeling shows how aggressive chemistries accelerate degradation.
17. Which country is closest to making supercritical geothermal commercial?
Iceland, due to unique geology and deep drilling experience. Japan is also active.
18. What will kill superhot geothermal first: economics, technical limits, or public acceptance?
Economics. Technical challenges are solvable, but cost and risk perception will dictate adoption.
19–20. Why scaling persists and how to redesign for minimal scaling?
Scaling persists because fluid chemistry changes dynamically with temperature and pressure. To minimize it, start with predictive geochemical modeling and adaptive injection strategies areas I’ve worked on extensively.
21. Single permitting reform to accelerate geothermal?
Streamline NEPA reviews for low-impact geothermal projects, similar to solar/wind fast-track provisions.
30. Is US policy serious about geothermal?
Momentum is growing, but funding still lags behind wind and solar. DOE’s recent EGS Earthshot is a positive sign.
31–32. Lithium extraction from geothermal brines scalable or niche?
Viable in select locations like Salton Sea and Smackover Formation. Biggest technical barrier: extraction efficiency and brine chemistry variability areas I’ve researched in critical mineral recovery projects.
33. Why hasn’t geothermal scaled like wind and solar?
Brutal truth: high upfront cost, geological uncertainty, and lack of standardized workflows. Wind and solar are modular; geothermal is site-specific.
34. If I had DOE’s budget for one geothermal moonshot?
Fund AI-driven digital twins for EGS integrating physics-based models, real-time sensing, and predictive control. This aligns with my current work on reactive-transport modeling and machine learning for subsurface systems.
At Alphaxioms we thank Trevor Atkinson for his time and detailed insights.
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About Trevor Atkinson He is a Research Scientist at INL, with expertise in geochemistry, hydrothermal experiments, reactive-transport modeling, and applications to geothermal, thermal energy storage, and critical minerals.
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