Menengai’s Broken Promise: How Kenya’s Geothermal Model Lost the Steam Thematic image of the Olkaria Geothermal Field Kenya’s Menengai geothermal project was sold as a model of modern public-private partnership. The state would carry the difficult and expensive burden of geothermal exploration and drilling. Private power producers would then build, own and operate power plants. Geothermal Development Company would supply the steam; the independent power producers would convert it into electricity; Kenya Power would buy the output. On paper, the arrangement was elegant. In practice, Menengai has exposed a far more uncomfortable reality: Kenya’s public steam-supply model is not delivering the certainty it promised. Menengai Phase I was designed to produce 105 megawatts from three 35 MW plants. GDC’s own project page says the three plants were awarded to Globeleq Menengai Geothermal, Sosian Menengai Geothermal Power and OrPower Twenty Two under a build-own-operate structure. Yet the ...
$170 Million to Unlock the Heat Beneath: How the Philippines Is De-Risking Geothermal Exploration
Geothermal energy has always been one of the Philippines’ greatest untapped strategic advantages an indigenous, low-carbon baseload resource sitting quietly beneath the archipelago’s volcanic spine. Yet for decades, the country’s geothermal expansion has moved cautiously, constrained not by lack of resource potential, but by risk, particularly at the exploration and drilling stage.
That may now be changing.
In a landmark move, the Department of Energy (DOE) and the Land Bank of the Philippines (LandBank) have unveiled a $170 million Philippine Geothermal Resource De-Risking Facility (PGRDF),a financial mechanism designed to absorb the most uncertain and capital-intensive phase of geothermal development: early-stage drilling.
Backed by a sovereign loan from the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the facility signals a bold shift in how governments can catalyze geothermal growth not by building power plants themselves, but by unlocking private capital through risk-sharing.
Why Geothermal Needs De-Risking
Unlike solar or wind, geothermal development begins with uncertainty. Before a single kilowatt is generated, developers must invest millions of dollars in geological surveys, geophysical studies, and exploratory drilling, often with no guarantee of commercial success.
Exploration wells can cost anywhere from $5 million to $10 million per well, and failure rates,especially in greenfield prospects,remain significant. For many investors, this upfront risk is simply too high.
This is the central bottleneck the PGRDF aims to address.
As Energy Secretary Sharon S. Garin aptly noted, geothermal development requires heavy investment “long before a single kilowatt is delivered to consumers.” By stepping in at this critical phase, the government is not replacing the private sector,it is crowding it in.
Inside the Philippine Geothermal Resource De-Risking Facility
The PGRDF is structured to share both cost and risk associated with exploratory drilling. While full implementation details will be finalized ahead of the application rollout next year, several key features already stand out:
$170 million funding pool. sourced through an ADB-backed sovereign loan
Cost- and risk-sharing for drilling, reducing financial exposure for developers
Milestone-based funding, ensuring accountability and technical rigor
Focus on early-stage projects, where uncertainty is highest
Under the signed Memorandum of Agreement (MOA):
The DOE will oversee policy direction, technical standards, and eligibility criteria
LandBank will manage applications, fund disbursement, reporting, and compliance
This dual structure blends technical governance with financial discipline, a combination often missing in failed geothermal support schemes elsewhere.
Expanding the Geothermal Pipeline Beyond Projections
According to Energy Undersecretary Rowena Cristina L. Guevara, the facility is expected to push geothermal capacity beyond current projections in the Philippine Energy Plan 2023–2050.
That statement is significant.
Energy plans are typically conservative, grounded in what is already bankable. By reducing exploration risk, the PGRDF widens the pipeline of investible geothermal prospects, converting speculative resources into confirmed reserves,exactly the step financiers require before committing large-scale capital.
In practical terms, this means:
More geothermal concessions advancing to confirmation
Faster transition from exploration to development
Increased investor confidence in Philippine geothermal assets
Strengthening Energy Security and Price Stability
Beyond capacity expansion, the PGRDF carries profound implications for energy security.
The Philippines remains heavily exposed to imported fossil fuels, particularly coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG), leaving electricity prices vulnerable to global market volatility. Geothermal energy, by contrast, offers stable, domestically sourced baseload power with predictable operating costs.
By accelerating geothermal development, the facility helps:
Reduce exposure to fuel price shocks
Improve grid resilience
Support long-term electricity price stability
In a world of rising geopolitical risk and uncertain energy markets, this is not just an energy policy,it is a strategic economic hedge.
A Model Other Geothermal Nations Are Watching
Globally, geothermal de-risking facilities are gaining traction, but few are implemented at this scale. Successful precedents,such as those supported by the World Bank in East Africa have shown that every dollar spent on exploration risk mitigation can unlock multiple dollars of private investment downstream.
The Philippine model stands out for:
Its national-level backing
Integration with a major domestic financial institution
Clear alignment with long-term energy planning
If executed effectively, the PGRDF could position the Philippines as a regional leader in geothermal finance innovation, not just geothermal generation.
What This Means for Developers and Investors
For geothermal developers,both domestic and international,the facility changes the calculus entirely.
Projects once deemed too risky may now:
Reach bankability faster
Secure financing on better terms
Attract strategic partners earlier
For investors, particularly infrastructure funds and utilities, the PGRDF creates a stronger deal pipeline with reduced downside risk,exactly what long-term capital seeks.
The Bigger Picture: From Heat Underground to Power on the Grid
Geothermal energy has always been one of the Philippines’ strongest cards in the clean energy transition. Yet potential alone does not build power plants policy, finance, and risk allocation do.
By launching the Philippine Geothermal Resource De-Risking Facility, the government is addressing the sector’s weakest link with precision. It is not subsidizing power generation. It is not distorting markets. Instead, it is unlocking certainty where uncertainty once stalled progress.
If implemented transparently and efficiently, this $170 million facility could mark the beginning of a new geothermal expansion cycle one where heat beneath the ground is finally matched by confidence above it.
For a country sitting on some of the world’s richest geothermal resources, this may be the moment when ambition meets execution.
Source:Phillipines News Agency
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