1. A Market Poised for Steady Growth
According to industry forecasts, the global geothermal energy market is on track for major expansion. We project the sector will grow from USD 56.0 billion in 2025 to USD 85.0 billion by 2035, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.2%. Business Research Insights forecasts a CAGR of 7.3% between 2025 and 2034, highlighting strong demand driven by decarbonization and clean-heat applications.
Additionally, the global geothermal completions market is projected to grow at a 7.2% CAGR between 2025 and 2035, underscoring widespread drilling activity and investment interest. These forecasts confirm that geothermal is rising beyond niche status into a major global clean-energy pillar.
2. Capacity Expansion: Real Growth Already Underway
The 2025 REN21 Global Status Report shows that around 400 MW of new geothermal power capacity came online in 2024, raising global installed capacity to roughly 15.1 GW. Beyond this, the Global Geothermal Power Tracker identifies more than 15 GW of capacity in the development or construction pipeline—almost doubling the world’s existing capacity.
Investor appetite is also accelerating. U.S.-based Fervo Energy is preparing for a potential $2–$4 billion IPO, signaling strong confidence in the commercial viability of next-generation geothermal technologies.
3. Technology Innovation Fuels Investor Confidence
Next-generation geothermal technologies—including Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS), closed-loop systems such as Eavor-Loop, supercritical research, and AI-supported reservoir modeling—are driving down costs while opening previously inaccessible hot rock resources.
A recent study suggests EGS could become cost-competitive with wind and solar by 2027, thanks to advances in drilling, stimulation, and data-driven resource forecasting.
The U.S. Department of Energy’s “Liftoff” program aims to scale geothermal to tens of gigawatts by 2050, targeting dramatic cost reductions of up to 90% by 2035. These innovations reduce risk, attract investors, and provide new pathways to large-scale geothermal deployment.
4. WSJ: Geothermal’s Breakout Moment in the U.S.
The Wall Street Journal underscores just how transformative geothermal could become. According to the WSJ, geothermal energy is:
- “expected to grow 20× by 2050 worldwide,” driven by unprecedented technological advancements.
- Especially promising in the U.S., where oil & gas drilling expertise, rigs, casing, and subsurface data can be repurposed for geothermal.
- Capable of powering up to 45% of U.S. homes someday, if current development trajectories continue.
This assessment places geothermal in the same league as other disruptive energy technologies, positioning it as a central pillar of America’s clean baseload future.
5. Geographical Hotspots: East Africa & Asia Lead Growth
East Africa
East Africa remains one of the most dynamic geothermal regions globally. Countries including Kenya, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Rwanda, and Tanzania continue expanding exploration and drilling activities. Kenya, in particular, remains Africa’s geothermal leader, with KenGen and GDC deploying new wells, contracting OEMs, and evaluating untapped fields.
The East African Rift continues to attract global investors due to its high temperatures, substantial resource potential, and proven drilling track record.
Asia-Pacific
In Asia, Indonesia is pushing for aggressive capacity additions to meet rising electricity demand and reduce fossil fuel dependence. The Philippines and Japan are similarly investing in next-generation systems, brownfield upgrades, and early-stage exploration.
Supportive policy frameworks in both regions are accelerating investment flows, creating opportunities for OEMs, drilling contractors, and geothermal consultants.
6. Beyond Electricity: The Rise of Multi-Use Geothermal Applications
2025 marks a major turning point for geothermal’s role beyond power generation. Investors are increasingly focusing on:
Industrial Heat
Geothermal offers stable, clean, high-temperature heat for factories, agro-processing, and district networks—cutting industrial emissions.
Green Hydrogen
High-temperature geothermal reservoirs can provide clean heat and power for hydrogen production, offering round-the-clock output advantages compared to intermittent renewables.
Lithium & Mineral Extraction
Geothermal brines in regions such as the U.S., Germany, and East Africa contain valuable minerals. As demand for lithium surges, co-production from geothermal plants could create new revenue streams.
District Heating, Cooling & Agriculture
Low- and medium-temperature geothermal is expanding in greenhouses, aquaculture, hotels, municipal buildings, and residential networks.
These diversified applications make geothermal attractive for new investors beyond the traditional power sector.
7. Policy Tailwinds Boost Confidence
Governments across the globe are introducing policies that accelerate geothermal deployment:
- Germany has proposed a law declaring geothermal projects of “overriding public interest,” simplifying approvals for exploration and district heating expansion.
- The U.S. Department of Energy is investing heavily in geothermal R&D, drilling demonstrations, and EGS pilot projects.
- Countries in East Africa and Southeast Asia continue to implement incentives, drilling risk-sharing arrangements, and PPP frameworks.
These policy environments reduce upfront risk and stabilize investor confidence—critical for long-lead geothermal projects.
8. Remaining Risks & Challenges
Despite momentum, geothermal faces several challenges:
- High upfront drilling and exploration costs
- Regulatory permitting delays
- Environmental concerns such as induced seismicity
- Limited local geothermal expertise in emerging markets
- Financing barriers for early-stage exploration
However, as technologies improve and policies reduce risk, these barriers continue to weaken.
Conclusion
2025 stands as a landmark year for geothermal energy. With large-scale investments, technological breakthroughs, and strong government support, geothermal is shifting from niche status to a global powerhouse. The Wall Street Journal’s projection that geothermal could power 45% of U.S. homes and grow 20× by 2050 highlights the scale of its potential.
For companies like Alphaxioms, the opportunities are immense—from consulting and resource evaluation to drilling planning, direct-use project design, and geothermal innovation research.
The geothermal decade has begun—and the world is finally heating up to its potential.
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