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"US Geothermal Tax Credits 2026: What the IRA/45Q Changes Mean for Developers"

US Geothermal Tax Credits in 2026: What Is Actually Still Alive After OBBBA For an industry that spent more than a decade building financial models around a stable federal incentive structure, 2026 has been a year of whiplash. The 30% federal geothermal tax credit that developers and homeowners built forecasts around is gone in one form and still alive in another, and even the IRS’s own public guidance has been confusing enough to trigger uncertainty across the market. That confusion is not a minor clerical issue. It is shaping investment decisions, contractor sales pitches, homeowner timelines, and project finance assumptions right now. If you work in geothermal, the key question is no longer whether federal incentives exist, but which incentive applies, to which project type, and under what ownership structure. The law that changed the timeline To understand where things stand in 2026, you have to start with the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, which created a long runway for clean e...

Pertamina Geothermal & Toyota: A New Chapter for Green Hydrogen in Indonesia

Jakarta, September 2025  In a move that could change how Indonesia leverages its enormous geothermal endowment, PT Pertamina Geothermal Energy Tbk (PGE) and PT Toyota Motor Manufacturing Indonesia (TMMIN) signed a joint declaration to develop a green hydrogen ecosystem in Indonesia. 


The announcement  made at the 11th Indonesia International Geothermal Convention & Exhibition (IIGCE) in Jakarta  signals an ambition to turn geothermal heat into a strategic feedstock for low-carbon fuels and industrial feedstocks, not just electricity.

Why this matters

Indonesia sits on some of the world’s richest geothermal resources. Traditionally those resources have been used to generate baseload electricity; PGE’s partnership with Toyota broadens the conversation: use geothermal power and heat to produce green hydrogen, then convert that hydrogen into transport fuels, ammonia, methanol, or industrial hydrogen for heavy industry. That pivot  from selling megawatt-hours to producing molecules could unlock new revenue streams and a faster path toward the country’s Net Zero Emission 2060 ambitions.

The Ulubelu pilot  what it is and what it shows

PGE has already started pilots in Ulubelu (Lampung). The Ulubelu Green Hydrogen Pilot Project couples geothermal energy with modern electrolysis (reported as anion exchange membrane  AEM  electrolysis) to produce green hydrogen on a small but demonstrative scale. The plant is intended as both a production facility and a learning hub  a place to test technology, integration, and supply chain logistics before scaling. Early reports place the pilot’s capacity at roughly 100 kg of hydrogen per day with high-efficiency electrolysis performance, giving engineers and planners real operational data to design larger systems.

Where Toyota fits in

Toyota brings automotive and hydrogen-mobility experience to the table: decades of work on fuel-cell vehicles, supply chains for hydrogen mobility, and an industrial network that can accelerate downstream applications. For PGE, Toyota is an ideal partner to help define hydrogen off-take, mobility use-cases, and standards for safe handling and distribution at scale. The partnership isn’t just symbolic  it links upstream renewable production with downstream demand and market know-how.
Ambition and scale: the roadmap ahead
PGE has set ambitious targets to back hydrogen production with significant geothermal capacity  with plans to move from pilot projects to commercial demonstrators and then to integrated, site-based ecosystems where geothermal fields support electrolyzers, storage, and local industry off-take. If realized, that pathway could create localized industrial clusters powered by geothermal-derived hydrogen.
Opportunities  and the real challenges
Opportunities:
  • Continuous baseload power: Geothermal’s steady output makes it a compelling renewable partner for electrolyzers that prefer steady, predictable input.
  • Value-stacking for geothermal assets: Producing hydrogen (and derivatives like ammonia) lets geothermal operators monetize beyond kilowatt-hour sales.
  • Industrial decarbonization: Green hydrogen can displace fossil hydrogen in refineries, fertilizer production, and heavy transport  sectors where electrification is difficult.
Practical challenges:
  • Cost and scale of electrolyzers: Electrolysis at industrial scale remains capital-intensive; reducing CAPEX and securing local supply chains are critical.
  • Distribution and storage: Hydrogen infrastructure (compression, storage, pipelines, or conversion to carriers such as ammonia) needs investment and regulation.
  • Regulatory & market frameworks: Clear incentives, offtake guarantees, and standards will accelerate private investment.
  • Technical integration: Matching geothermal plant operations (heat/water availability, grid interactions) with electrolyzer dynamics requires engineering and operational innovation.
What success looks like for Indonesia
A successful rollout would see multiple geothermal sites hosting electrolyzers and hydrogen conversion units, established domestic uses (transport fleets, industry), and export-ready products (green ammonia or methanol). It would diversify the role of geothermal from a grid-centric generator to a core feedstock provider for a low-carbon industrial economy. For PGE and Toyota, success will be judged not just by pilot metrics but by the creation of reproducible, investible business models that can be replicated across Indonesia’s archipelago.

Final thought strategic timing

Indonesia’s timing is strategic: global and regional momentum around hydrogen policy and clean fuels is growing, and industrial partners like Toyota provide pathways to demand. More importantly, leveraging geothermal for hydrogen is a uniquely Indonesian advantage  it’s a solution that aligns resource endowment with industrial decarbonization goals. If PGE and Toyota can move from declaration to demonstrable, bankable projects, Indonesia could become a regional showcase for geothermal-based green hydrogen.



Source: ASEAN ENERGY

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