Elon Musk and Geothermal Energy: A Complex Web of Indirect Influence
By: Robert Buluma
Elon Musk has built an empire on the proposition that humanity's biggest problems can be solved through ambitious engineering. From revolutionizing the electric vehicle industry with Tesla to slashing the cost of space access with SpaceX, his formula is consistent: identify a stagnant industry, apply first‑principles thinking, and scale relentlessly. Yet for all his ventures into solar, batteries, and even tunneling, one abundant clean energy source has remained conspicuously absent from his direct portfolio: geothermal energy.
But absence of direct investment is not absence of interest. A closer examination reveals that Musk's relationship with geothermal is far more complex than a simple "yes" or "no." Through his charitable foundation, his philosophical frameworks, and the gravitational pull of his engineering culture, Musk is shaping the geothermal industry in ways that are subtle, indirect, and potentially transformative.
The Direct Evidence: What We Actually Know
The $100 Million XPRIZE Precedent
The most concrete link between Musk and geothermal energy runs through the XPRIZE Foundation. In 2021, Musk's charitable foundation funded a $100 million XPRIZE for carbon removal—the largest incentive prize in history. While not geothermal‑specific, this competition established a template: Musk's foundation is willing to deploy massive prize money to accelerate breakthrough climate technologies.
That template is now being applied to geothermal. A global competition targeting next‑generation geothermal surface systems is in the works, aimed at removing technical bottlenecks in "turbomachinery"—the turbines, heat exchangers, and other above‑ground components that convert underground heat into electricity. The initiative addresses a critical industry reality: while drilling technology has improved dramatically, geothermal power plants remain largely bespoke, engineered for one specific well and assembled on‑site over 18 to 24 months. Prize‑style competitions are designed to unlock innovation that conventional markets are too slow or too constrained to deliver.
The critical nuance is that Musk's foundation funded the carbon removal XPRIZE, not this geothermal one directly. However, the precedent he set—that XPRIZE is a legitimate vehicle for accelerating energy innovation—paved the way for such competitions to exist and attract attention.
The Croatian Connection: Fact or Fiction?
In early 2025, a claim surfaced that Elon Musk was a potential investor in a Croatian geothermal project described as the world's largest source of its kind. The exploratory well reportedly reached an extraordinary depth—far beyond any known geothermal drilling record—and the project was said to be capable of meeting a continent's entire energy needs and powering a new electric vehicle factory.
The project's ambitions are nothing short of extraordinary. The geothermal source was claimed to be so potent that it could supply Europe's total power demand, with Musk allegedly so interested that he might visit personally.
Significant skepticism is warranted, however. The announcement came on April 1—April Fools' Day—and the claims of a record‑breaking well and a new EV factory have not been independently verified. No official confirmation has emerged from Musk, Tesla, or SpaceX. The story appears to have circulated only in limited local sources and has not been corroborated by major international media.
Regardless of the veracity of this specific case, it reflects a broader reality: Musk's name carries such weight that mayors and project developers invoke it to attract attention and investment, whether or not he is actually involved.
The Indirect Influence: The Musk Ecosystem
SpaceX Alumni Take on Geothermal
Perhaps the most concrete link between Musk's world and geothermal is a Los Angeles startup founded by a former SpaceX engineer. The company raised substantial funding—tens of millions of dollars—to mass‑produce modular geothermal turbines in factories rather than building them on‑site.
The founder spent roughly seven years at SpaceX, working on heavy‑lift rocket structures, thermal protection systems, and rocket engine components. His insight was straightforward: geothermal drilling costs have plummeted thanks to techniques borrowed from the oil and gas industry, but the above‑ground power plant remains bespoke and expensive. His solution is to treat a power plant as a product, not a construction project—container‑sized turbines built mostly off‑site, trucked in, and switched on in weeks.
The company's first commercial project is scheduled for completion within a few years, and they are also designing larger modules targeting enhanced geothermal operations. The long‑term ambition is staggering: hundreds of gigawatts of new generation annually by mid‑century.
While this startup is not a Musk company, its founding story is inseparable from the SpaceX culture. The founder explicitly models his approach on Tesla and SpaceX's vertical integration philosophy. The turbines "look a lot like a rocket engine"—a design language directly inherited from SpaceX experience. This represents the Musk engineering ethos applied to geothermal, even without Musk's direct involvement.
Master Plan 3: Geothermal in the Vision
Tesla's Master Plan Part 3, unveiled in 2023, outlines a pathway to a fully sustainable global economy. The plan includes "re‑powering the existing grid with renewables (solar, wind, geothermal, hydro, etc.)". Musk has explicitly named geothermal as one of the three paths to sustainable energy, alongside generation (wind, solar, hydro, geothermal), storage, and electric vehicles.
The plan calls for enormous amounts of energy storage globally, tens of terawatts of renewable power, and trillions of dollars in manufacturing investment—with geothermal included as part of the renewable mix. The stated goal that achieving 100% renewable energy is "technically entirely feasible" implicitly includes geothermal as part of the solution.
Yet the Master Plan's primary focus remains on solar, wind, and batteries. Geothermal is mentioned alongside hydro as part of the broader renewable category, not as a central pillar. This reflects a pragmatic prioritization: solar and wind are scaling rapidly today; geothermal requires more technological development before it can compete at scale.
The Broader Context: Why Geothermal Matters Now
The AI Power Crunch
The renewed interest in geothermal is not happening in a vacuum. It is being driven by an urgent, practical crisis: the exploding energy demand from artificial intelligence.
Global data center electricity demand, driven largely by AI requirements, could more than double in the coming years. Solar and wind power have a fundamental limitation: they are intermittent. AI data centers need power 24 hours a day, 365 days a year—at 3 AM, in still air, under cloud cover. Geothermal provides exactly that: firm, dispatchable, always‑on clean power.
The tech industry's response has been swift. Major technology firms have signed large power purchase agreements with geothermal developers. Over $2 billion in global funding was allocated to geothermal initiatives in recent years. The numbers are clear: advanced geothermal could provide nearly a terawatt of capacity by mid‑century—about one‑tenth of global power. Some analyses suggest advanced geothermal could power nearly two‑thirds of new data centers by the end of the decade.
The Surface‑Level Bottleneck
The insight that the bottleneck has shifted from underground to above‑ground is widely recognized in the industry. The limited supply chain and high cost of surface equipment threaten to delay the industry's efforts to supply huge amounts of clean electricity.
This is where the Musk influence becomes most relevant. The SpaceX model—take a complex engineering challenge, simplify it through first‑principles thinking, manufacture at scale in factories, and iterate rapidly—is precisely what the geothermal turbine industry needs. The former SpaceX engineer's startup is attempting to do for geothermal turbines what SpaceX did for rocket engines: make them cheaper, faster, and mass‑producible.
The Question of Direct Entry
Would Musk Ever Invest Directly?
Several factors suggest Musk might eventually make a direct move into geothermal:
Synergy with Tesla's mission: Tesla's core business is accelerating the transition to sustainable energy. Geothermal provides firm, clean power that complements Tesla's solar and battery offerings. A vertically integrated Tesla energy division that includes geothermal would be philosophically consistent.
Synergy with The Boring Company: Musk's tunneling venture has developed expertise in drilling underground. The Boring Company's tunnel‑boring machines could potentially be adapted for geothermal well drilling—a natural extension of the company's core competency.
Data center demand: Musk's xAI venture, which recently raised billions of dollars, needs enormous amounts of power for AI training. Geothermal could provide the firm, clean power that xAI's data centers require—and Musk has expressed fascination with underground data centers.
The precedent of "if it's broken, fix it": Musk has a track record of entering industries he perceives as stagnant or inefficient—automotive, aerospace, tunneling, brain‑computer interfaces. Geothermal, with its bespoke, slow, expensive surface infrastructure, fits this pattern perfectly.
Barriers to Direct Entry
Yet significant barriers remain:
Capital intensity: Geothermal projects are capital‑intensive and take years to develop. Musk prefers businesses with rapid iteration cycles—software, rockets, cars. Geothermal's multi‑year development timelines may not align with his preferred pace.
Geological risk: Unlike software or even rocket engineering, geothermal involves inherent geological uncertainty. You can drill a well and find less heat than expected. Musk's ventures typically involve engineering challenges that can be solved through design iteration, not geological luck.
Focus: Musk is already running Tesla, SpaceX, xAI, The Boring Company, and Neuralink. Adding geothermal—a capital‑intensive, geographically constrained industry—may simply be more than even he can manage.
Conclusion: The Musk Geothermal Paradox
So, will Elon Musk go into geothermal?
The answer depends on how one defines "go into." If the question is whether Musk will personally invest in or launch a geothermal company, the evidence suggests not in the near term. The Croatian story is unconfirmed and likely exaggerated. His Master Plan mentions geothermal only in passing. His foundation funded a carbon removal XPRIZE, not a geothermal one.
But if the question is whether Musk is influencing the geothermal industry, the answer is unequivocally yes. Through the SpaceX alumni who are now building geothermal turbines, through the XPRIZE model he legitimized, through the engineering philosophy he popularized, and through the massive AI energy demand his xAI venture is helping to create, Musk is shaping geothermal's future.
The startup story is particularly telling. A former SpaceX engineer, armed with the lessons of rapid iteration and factory‑scale manufacturing, is applying them to an industry that has been stagnant for decades. He is not the only one—the tech industry's broader shift toward geothermal is well underway—but he embodies the Musk approach: find a bottleneck, apply first‑principles thinking, and scale.
Musk's relationship with geothermal is one of indirect influence rather than direct ownership. He has created the conditions—cultural, financial, and technological—for geothermal to thrive, even if he never drills a single well himself. The XPRIZE competition he funded for carbon removal established a template for innovation prizes. The SpaceX engineers he trained are now applying their skills to geothermal turbines. The Tesla Master Plan he authored includes geothermal in its vision. The xAI data centers he is building need the kind of firm, clean power that only geothermal can provide.
In the end, Musk may not need to "go into" geothermal. The industry is coming to him.
Source: This article was written by Robert Buluma with insights from Alphaxioms
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