“Inside the Next Wave of Geothermal Innovation: Opportunities, Risks, and Global Impact”
By: Robert Buluma
An indepth interview with Cary Lindsey, PhD
Research Scientist Great Basin Center for Geothermal Energy, Nevada Bureau of Mines and Geology, University of Nevada Reno
1. Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) are often described as geothermal's "breakout technology." From a geological standpoint, what are the biggest unresolved uncertainties preventing large-scale commercial deployment?
The progress we've seen in EGS over the last few years has been incredible. For a long time, geothermal was largely limited to places where nature had already done the hard work for us by creating hot, permeable reservoirs. EGS opens the door to developing geothermal resources in places that were previously off the table.
That said, there are still some big questions we need to answer. Can we maintain those engineered reservoirs for decades? How much liquid (water or brine) will they require, and how much of that will be lost over time? How quickly will the reservoir cool as we extract heat? And, of course, there's induced seismicity, which tends to get the most public attention. The industry has made tremendous progress, but we're still learning how to monitor, manage, and communicate those risks effectively.
A lot of these challenges ultimately come back to how well we understand the subsurface.
The better we can characterize the reservoir and fracture network, the better we can predict and manage issues like fluid loss, thermal performance, and induced seismicity.
What's exciting is that these aren't theoretical questions anymore. We have projects operating in the field right now that are helping us understand the answers. That's a very different place than where we were even ten years ago.
2. As we move toward superhot rock geothermal (>400°C), what new geological risks or unknowns emerge that current drilling models fail to capture?
At temperatures above 400°C, many of the primary challenges become engineering challenges rather than geological ones. Operating drilling equipment, logging tools, electronics, and downhole instrumentation reliably at these extreme temperatures for extended periods presents significant hurdles.
While there are certainly geological questions surrounding fluid behavior, rock properties, and reservoir performance under these conditions, I believe the biggest barriers to commercial deployment are currently engineering and materials science challenges.
Developing equipment that can survive and operate reliably in these environments may ultimately prove more difficult than finding the resource itself.
3. How do you see machine learning and AI reshaping subsurface geological interpretation for geothermal exploration within the next 10–15 years?
Machine learning and AI will become increasingly valuable tools for geothermal exploration, but they are not replacements for geologists and engineers. Their greatest strength is helping us integrate and analyze enormous volumes of geological, geophysical, geochemical, and drilling data.
As datasets continue to grow, these tools can help identify patterns, reduce uncertainty, and support better decision making. We're already seeing companies and researchers successfully incorporate machine learning into geothermal exploration workflows.
I think the biggest impact over the next decade will be helping us make sense of increasingly large and complex datasets that would be difficult for any individual or team to evaluate on their own.
Human expertise will remain essential, but these technologies will allow us to work faster, test ideas more efficiently, and focus our attention on the most promising opportunities.
4. Traditional geothermal exploration relies heavily on surface manifestations. Do you believe the future will completely decouple geothermal discovery from surface geology? Why or why not?
In many regions, including the Great Basin of the western United States, we believe most geothermal systems (up to 70 percent) are hidden and lack obvious surface manifestations. As a result, the industry has already begun moving beyond the traditional model of discovering geothermal resources through hot springs and fumaroles.
A great example is the work being done through the DOE-funded INGENIOUS project (PI James Faulds; Co-PI Cary Lindsey), which is focused on developing and testing new approaches for finding hidden geothermal systems. Rather than starting with a thermal feature at the surface, we integrate geological, geophysical, geochemical, and remote sensing datasets to identify areas that have the characteristics of a geothermal system even when there is no obvious surface expression.
However, geothermal exploration will never be completely decoupled from geology. We still rely on understanding structural controls, fault systems, heat flow, and fluid pathways. The difference is that instead of starting with a hot spring, we may begin with geophysical anomalies, favorable structural settings, or regional datasets that indicate geothermal potential.
The tools and workflows may evolve, but the underlying geology still controls where geothermal systems occur and how they behave.
5. In deep geothermal systems, permeability is often the limiting factor. What emerging geological or engineering approaches do you think could permanently solve the permeability challenge?
I'm not sure permeability is a challenge that will ever be permanently solved. Different geothermal technologies approach the problem in different ways.
Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) and Advanced Geothermal Systems (AGS) represent two of the most promising approaches to addressing permeability limitations.
Conventional geothermal development depends on naturally occurring permeability, while EGS seeks to create or enhance permeability where it is lacking. AGS concepts are designed to operate with minimal reliance on natural reservoir permeability altogether.
The future will likely involve a combination of approaches tailored to specific geological settings rather than a single universal solution. As with most things in geothermal, the best answer will depend on the resource.
6. How realistic is the concept of "geothermal everywhere" using deep closed-loop or supercritical systems, compared to today's volcanic and rift-zone dependent resources?
I am not particularly fond of the phrase "geothermal everywhere." While it may eventually be technically possible to generate geothermal energy in many locations, that does not necessarily mean it will be economically competitive everywhere.
The exciting development is that geothermal may become viable in far more places than we once thought. High temperatures at accessible depths will continue to provide a major advantage, and tectonically active settings such as rift zones, extensional provinces, and volcanic regions will likely remain attractive development targets.
When I think of truly "geothermal everywhere," I think more about ground source heat pumps and thermal energy networks where a thermal anomaly is not required. Those technologies have the potential to bring geothermal energy into communities almost anywhere.
7. What role could real-time subsurface imaging (4D seismic, fiber optics, or quantum sensing) play in reducing drilling uncertainty in the next decade?
Drilling is one of the largest costs and risks in geothermal development. Technologies such as fiber optics, microseismic monitoring, and advanced imaging systems could provide valuable insight into how geothermal reservoirs behave before, during, and after drilling.
Rather than relying on occasional snapshots of the subsurface, operators may eventually be able to monitor reservoir performance in near real time. This could improve our understanding of fluid movement, fracture behavior, and reservoir response to production and injection.
Even if these technologies don't eliminate uncertainty, they can help us make better decisions about where to drill, how to manage reservoirs, and how to reduce risk throughout the life of a project. That has the potential to improve project outcomes and lower the overall cost of geothermal energy.
8. Looking 20–30 years ahead, what would a fully matured geothermal industry look like from a geological science perspective—especially in terms of exploration, drilling depth, and resource mapping?
I don't think geothermal will ever become a risk-free industry, and honestly, that's part of what makes it interesting. We're trying to understand and develop resources several kilometers beneath the Earth's surface. There will always be uncertainty when you're dealing with the subsurface.
What I do think will change is our ability to manage that uncertainty. We'll have better datasets, better models, more sophisticated monitoring tools, and a much stronger understanding of why geothermal systems occur where they do. Exploration teams will be able to make better-informed decisions, but there will still be surprises. There will still be wells that don't perform as expected. That's the nature of exploration.
I also think we'll see a much broader view of geothermal resources. Today, we often focus on individual prospects. In the future, we'll think more about geothermal plays and regional heat resources. We'll have a better understanding of where resources are likely to occur and which development approaches make the most sense for a given resource.
As drilling technology improves, we'll be able to access deeper and hotter resources than we can today, but I don't think geology becomes less important. If anything, understanding the subsurface becomes even more important as we push into new environments. The future isn't about eliminating geological risk. It's about getting better at understanding, managing, and making decisions in the face of that risk.
At Alphaxioms ,We sincerely appreciate Cary's time and valuable insights shared during this interview. Her expertise has greatly enriched our understanding of the future of geothermal energy.
Comments
Post a Comment